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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 11

Mike Castle
Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

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November 11 – Stock futures are pointing to a stronger open, particularly in the tech heavy Nasdaq following a fresh sigh of relief for the sector after CoreWeave’s third quarter earnings results. The mood on Wall Street is calming as the VIX is notably lower to start the day, currently hovering at its lowest level in a week near the 18.4 mark. The dollar is adding to yesterday’s gains after the hotter than expected October CPI data reinforced fears of a more hawkish Fed, currently up 0.5% to trade at 102.73. Treasury yields surged higher yesterday but markets are closed today in observance of Veterans Day; 2-year yields yesterday settled 20-basis points higher at 4.748%, 10-year yields just under 14-basis points higher at 5.00%, and 30-year yields 10-basis points higher at 5.358%. Crude oil prices are bouncing from sharp early week losses, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day to trade near $87.20 and nearby Brent up 1.5% to trade near $92.90. The ags are mixed to start the day, with corn and soybeans showing modest losses after the big post-WASDE jump yesterday, while the wheat complex is clinging to small gains at the break following fresh escalations between Russia and Ukraine that we’ll dive into below.

CoreWeave's earnings eased some of the market's growing concerns about an AI infrastructure slowdown, with revenue surging 168% year-over-year to $3.66B while also raising their full-year guidance. While the company continues to post sizable losses due to heavy financing and expansion costs, investors focused on the strength of AI compute demand, sending shares sharply higher and lifting the broader AI infrastructure complex, including Nvidia, which has endured an incredibly ugly selloff in recent days/weeks. While most of the big names in tech have already reported for the third quarter, Nvidia is on deck next Tuesday (11/17). A strong report could reinforce the message from CoreWeave that AI demand remains robust, while a weak outlook would likely reignite concerns that AI-related capital spending is peaking. In addition to Nvidia's results, markets will also be watching the expected IPO of Anthropic next week. The technology sector has been a major driver of volatility across broader equity markets, and that dynamic is unlikely to change anytime soon with two important AI-related litmus tests just around the corner.

Ukrainian drones struck the Russian Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga overnight, reportedly targeting oil export infrastructure. Officials confirmed a fire at the facility as well as three workers being injured, but the extent of the damage to the complex itself is still unknown. From a psychological perspective, this attack is notable because of the newfound importance of Russia’s Baltic Sea ports given the ongoing effective closure of the Black Sea. Wheat prices jumped in the overnights following reports of the attack but have cooled into this morning as it became clear that the strikes hit energy, not grain targets. At the same time, Russia launched another large drone-and-missile barrage against Ukraine overnight, hitting at least 17 locations and causing damage in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and several other regions, but there are no indications yet of energy infrastructure damage comparable in market importance to the strike on Ust-Luga.

This doesn’t bode well for today’s ongoing trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, though the market still appears eager to price a path toward de-escalation. The fact that both sides are still conducting large, strategically meaningful strikes while talks are underway suggests that they are negotiating from positions of continued military pressure, not from a shared expectation that the now almost five-year-old war is about to end. None of the public reporting suggests either side has materially softened its position on territory, NATO, or security guarantees—three of the most important issues that could ultimately determine whether a durable agreement is possible. From a market perspective, wheat futures appear to be trading more on the possibility that a broader settlement eventually reduces Black Sea risk premiums than on any specific evidence that negotiators are actually close to announcing a new grain-export agreement.

Average 30-year mortgage rates fell for the fourth consecutive week, now sitting at 7.21% for the week ending November 6, down from 7.30% in the week prior and marking the lowest level seen since mid-September. This drove a 6.2% week-on-week uptick in overall mortgage applications, the largest weekly rise in five months. The increases were broad-based, with applications for new purchases jumping 7.5% week-on-week and refinancing applications rising 4.5%. MBA’s Purchase Index, representing new purchases, rose to 141.2, a five-week high and marking a 9.3% rebound from the near two-year low hit last month. The decline in mortgage rates has followed the decline in 10-year Treasury yields over the last month, but given yesterday’s surge in yields across the curve, it will be interesting to see how long this improvement will last. We’ll get an updated look at the health of the housing market tomorrow with October existing home sales on tap. August and September saw the weakest back-to-back months of existing home sales in two years, and expectations are for additional softening in October.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 11

November 11 – Stock futures are pointing to a stronger open, particularly in the tech heavy Nasdaq following a fresh sigh of relief for the sector after CoreWeave’s third quarter earnings results. The mood on Wall Street is calming as the VIX is notably lower to start the day, currently hovering at its lowest level in a week near the 18.4 mark. The dollar is adding to yesterday’s gains after the hotter than expected October CPI data reinforced fears of a more hawkish Fed, currently up 0.5% to trade at 102.73. Treasury yields surged higher yesterday but markets are closed today in observance of Veterans Day; 2-year yields yesterday settled 20-basis points higher at 4.748%, 10-year yields just under 14-basis points higher at 5.00%, and 30-year yields 10-basis points higher at 5.358%. Crude oil prices are bouncing from sharp early week losses, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day to trade near $87.20 and nearby Brent up 1.5% to trade near $92.90. The ags are mixed to start the day, with corn and soybeans showing modest losses after the big post-WASDE jump yesterday, while the wheat complex is clinging to small gains at the break following fresh escalations between Russia and Ukraine that we’ll dive into below. Stock futures are pointing to a lower open in classic turnaround Tuesday fashion as they look to take back some of yesterday’s sharp gains. The VIX is up 5.7% from yesterday’s close, currently sitting just above 21, though well below the recent highs above 28 seen last week. The dollar is looking at a turnaround Tuesday as well, up 0.3% to trade near 102 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are sharply higher to start the session, with 2-year yields up near 15-basis points to trade near 4.70%, 10-year yields up 9-basis points to trade near 4.955%, and 30-year yields up 6-basis points to trade just below 5.32%. Crude oil prices are continuing lower amid de-escalatory rhetoric coming from the Trump administration, with nearby WTI down 2.2% on the day to trade below $84.50 while nearby Brent is down 3.4% to trade near $89.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly lower at the break.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 10

November 10 – October CPI inflation data came in slightly hotter than expected this morning, with headline CPI rising 0.4% month-on-month and core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, both of which were 0.1% above the average analyst estimate. Year-on-year figures were not published due to last October’s government shutdown, but we can interpolate using the CPI index itself. If we take the average of last September and November’s CPI index of 324.461, it would imply a headline CPI increase of 4.0% year-over-year, which would be an acceleration from the 3.7% seen in September and the hottest reading since May. Given the major build-up of inflationary pressures already seen at the producer level, it’s no surprise to see the pass-through to the consumer taking place, as we’ve been pointing to for months. Stock futures are pointing to a lower open in classic turnaround Tuesday fashion as they look to take back some of yesterday’s sharp gains. The VIX is up 5.7% from yesterday’s close, currently sitting just above 21, though well below the recent highs above 28 seen last week. The dollar is looking at a turnaround Tuesday as well, up 0.3% to trade near 102 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are sharply higher to start the session, with 2-year yields up near 15-basis points to trade near 4.70%, 10-year yields up 9-basis points to trade near 4.955%, and 30-year yields up 6-basis points to trade just below 5.32%. Crude oil prices are continuing lower amid de-escalatory rhetoric coming from the Trump administration, with nearby WTI down 2.2% on the day to trade below $84.50 while nearby Brent is down 3.4% to trade near $89.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly lower at the break.

Mike Castle
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 9

November 9 – Stock futures built on Friday’s consolidation, as value buyers slowly re-entered the market overnight. We’ll get key inflation data this week, with the consumer price index for October scheduled for release tomorrow, followed by the producer price index on Friday. Scheduled negotiations regarding both major wars on commodity logistics will also take place over the next few days. The VIX slid lower to trade near 23, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 101.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.83% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.52%. WTI crude oil prices are near $87, while Brent trades near $94 per barrel. The grain and oilseed complex traded mixed to weaker overnight, with traders now focused on tomorrow’s big USDA WASDE crop report.

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