By: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
USD/CHF has gained more than 5.4% from its recent lows and is nearing a seventh straight weekly advance, as U.S. fiscal worries keep Treasury yields climbing and the Swiss franc under pressure. U.S. fiscal worries are pushing Treasury yields higher even as Fed funds futures price in a Federal Reserve hold, a sign that the bond market is reacting to inflation and the U.S. fiscal position, not to rate expectations alone. The result is a firm dollar against the Swiss franc as the bond selloff runs on.
Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, has more than 20 years of experience trading FX, commodities and equity indices, including nearly two decades on FX trade desks, brokerages and trader news sites. He analyzes currency pairs such as USD/CHF through a structured, multi-time frame technical lens with a medium-term, event-driven focus.
U.S. Treasury yields keep moving higher even as Fed funds futures price in nearly a 78% chance that the Federal Reserve holds interest rates. "Despite that shift in the interest rate expectations, yields continue to move higher," Boutros says. That gap between policy pricing and the bond market is the key signal, since U.S. Treasury yields are responding to inflation and the U.S. fiscal situation as much as to the Federal Reserve. For currency traders, the bond selloff itself, not the rate path, now sets the tone for the dollar.
U.S. fiscal worries are keeping pressure on the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF up more than 5.4% from its recent lows and momentum at its highest level since early 2025. The rally comes as the bond selloff continues and U.S. Treasury yields keep climbing. Even so, an outside daily reversal at long-term resistance has slowed the near-term advance, leaving the broader USD/CHF uptrend from the yearly lows intact. With the Swiss economic calendar light, attention stays on the U.S. bond market. According to Boutros, "markets are still concerned not only about inflation but about the fiscal situation, and that continues to remain in the forefront for traders".
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst
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