Global shipping has entered a period where uncertainty is no longer episodic but persistent, shaped by political decisions rather than market balance. Tariffs, regulatory threats, and geopolitical flashpoints have repeatedly altered trade flows without warning. These shocks have shortened planning horizons and increased rate volatility even when physical disruption is limited. For freight markets built on long-lived assets, this shift raises fundamental questions about how risk is priced and managed.
Tom Beney, StoneX Senior Vice President of Ocean Freight, provides insight into how policy-driven volatility is reshaping freight markets and undermining traditional supply and demand signals.
Key Themes from the Discussion
Trade policy and regulation increasingly override demand signals in freight pricing.
Geopolitical risk alters shipping behavior even without physical disruptions.
Short-term policy truces prevent long-term planning and investment clarity.
Freight markets have traditionally adjusted to changes in consumption, inventory, and production, but recent years have disrupted that rhythm. Beney notes that markets now react instantly to political developments, explaining that “every time we see something… whether it’s additional tariffs or new regulation… we have a reaction to that”. These reactions often precede any measurable change in cargo volumes. As a result, volatility reflects anticipation of policy outcomes rather than realized shifts in trade demand.
Why Uncertainty Matters More Than Direction
The persistence of political risk has made certainty more valuable than price levels themselves. Beney highlights that shipping companies struggle to commit capital when rules may change within months, noting that “it’s very difficult to plan ahead”. Even when rates remain profitable, hesitation replaces expansion because investment horizons extend decades. This disconnect explains why freight markets remain volatile despite periods of strong earnings and stable physical flows.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Tom Beney, StoneX Senior Vice President of Ocean Freight
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