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By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Global fertilizer markets are entering uncharted territory. StoneX Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville details how government intervention in India and tight supplies in North America are driving prices to multi-year highs.
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“We are tired of paying these massive subsidies… we will not support anything over $675.”
With farmers shielded from global volatility by fixed domestic prices, New Delhi is assuming the subsidy burden. Spot offers surged to $750 CFR before the government drew a line. If producers accept the cap, Linville expects prices to “stay fairly steady—unfortunately at a very high level.” However, should suppliers refuse, the stand-off could ignite a fresh rally.
Last year’s “perfect storm” arrived this spring. “You can’t find anything before the month of June, some people saying July”. UAN stocks are exhausted, and urea availability is fading fast. Linville calls the situation unprecedented: “Everybody I’ve talked to… has never seen it”.
High flat prices are only half the story. Measured in bushels of corn per ton of DAP, costs are now the second worst in history. “The only time it was worse was during the first supercycle of 2008”. As long as China’s exports stay low and India rebuilds stocks, North American values will shadow the global market.
Linville sees one hope: rain. “It gives the market a chance to breathe and kind of take stock of what’s happened”. A widespread break would let retailers replenish inventories and farmers pause purchases, potentially easing the $100/ton weekly jump at New Orleans. Even so, he cautions that prices may only “calm down,” not collapse.
“Retailers are saying it will be late May before they can find substantial volume,” Linville added. Imports won’t help in time—shipping and distribution delays mean new deliveries may not reach farms until well after planting is complete.
The Farmer Fertilizer Focus Plan will lift the veil on market trends, factors to watch for, and unique perspectives to consider for your operation, helping you make more informed, financially beneficial decisions. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free 14-day trial.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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