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By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
China’s surprise policy easing and a rapid thaw in US-China trade tensions set the backdrop for Senior Metals Analyst Natalie Scott-Gray’s latest market assessment.
“The pace of tariff reductions in the US… has occurred so quickly that they put them on, they took them back”. Over one weekend in Switzerland, the US cut duties to 30%, trimmed de minimis rates and Beijing slashed its own tariffs to 10%. While the move removes an extreme downside scenario, Scott-Gray notes that it does not erase earlier damage. She adds that both sides still lack data on how 100% tariffs affected prices and trade, clouding any lasting relief.
Mid-week, the People’s Bank of China unveiled ten support measures, including lower reserve requirements and seven-day repo rates, the first such cuts since September. The stimulus equals the largest effort since the global financial crisis, yet Scott-Gray cautions that “retail sales, fixed-asset investment were weaker than a year ago”. She believes that monetary easing may cushion growth but cannot fully offset lingering property sector stress.
March figures showed industrial production outperformed, but China’s April PMI manufacturing slipped below 50 and CPI fell for a third month while PPI notched a 31-month decline. Scott-Gray notes that front-loaded exports drove 40% of Q1 GDP with tariffs only partially rolled back, meaning export momentum may falter. She warns that “there is a question mark over growth in the second half of the year for China”, implying subdued demand for industrial metals.
Higher US rates are likely to persist until late summer, delaying a cyclical recovery in metals demand. Meanwhile, a 90-day trial period expires 8 July, and Washington may still announce sector-specific duties on items such as copper and semiconductors. “It is unlikely we’re going to see a nominal high base-metal prices… in the next few months”, Scott-Gray concludes. For now, stimulus and tariff relief merely temper—not eliminate—the bearish tilt on base-metal pricing.
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--- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst
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