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StoneX Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville warns that 2024’s familiar summertime price break may not arrive, as shifting supply dynamics and uneven demand redraw the fertilizer map.
“We’re finally starting to find out their export programs… 4 million t is the number”. That figure is less than half China’s typical 9–10 million t, removing a critical valve in global supply. India, meanwhile, has ”been forced to buy” at progressively higher prices, jumping from the mid-$640s t in March to the $750s t this week. Tightness looks set to persist, dimming hopes of a summer reset in phosphates.
At New Orleans, urea barges “down $70 a ton for one single week” after rallying the same amount the week prior. Early U.S. planting compressed spring demand into a narrow window, first draining inventories then leaving vessels to arrive into softer buying interest. Linville expects further weakness but not a retest of last summer’s lows.
Potash “continues to feel… very well supplied globally” with production growth outpacing demand. While triple-digit declines are unlikely, Linville sees room for a price trim sufficient to “entice the market to… start getting this product.” Farmers watching margins may find value here before year-end.
Phosphate firmness, urea’s retracement and potash’s looming surplus create a patchwork of opportunities. Linville advises growers to monitor nitrogen offers closely—further downside appears possible—while expecting little relief in phosphates unless policy shifts. A measured potash buy could capture any modest reset.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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