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By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
StoneX VP of Fertilizer Josh Linville tells Johanna Botta that geopolitical shocks and demand dynamics are reshaping the global fertilizer landscape.
“This is massive on a couple of different fronts” said Linville after Ukraine’s weekend attack on a Russian nitrogen complex. The plant accounts for roughly 10% of Russia’s urea and nearly 40% of its ammonium-nitrate output. With the unit offline and no restart timeline, traders are weighing whether to build “wartime premiums” into forward prices. The safety checks required before any restart underscore how prolonged outages can ripple through supply.
Bids for India’s latest tender close Wednesday night, handled by NFL. After offers are opened, the lowest West Coast price (L1) is shown to all sellers, who can then match it or walk away. The tonnes offered will signal how tight supply really is; a thin book could lift prices ahead of peak demand. India’s transparent process means the resulting price swiftly becomes the global reference.
NOLA prompt urea barges “have climbed and fallen a total of $350” since 21 March. An early, wide-open North American spring pulled product forward, bidding up front-end shipments. Once field demand eased, excess imports faced storage challenges and prices collapsed. “There’s not extra demand there to take care of all that extra supply sitting around”. Such swings, while seasonal, highlight the logistical fine line importers walk between demurrage costs and missed seasons.
India stunned the market by securing roughly 650 kt of potash from Belarus and an additional block from Russia at about $75 / t above last summer’s level. Linville expected flat-to-slightly-higher pricing given robust global supply, from Belarusian exports exceeding pre-invasion levels to new capacity in Laos, Russia and Canada. Yet the higher contract now serves as a floor: “Why do you think you should deserve to get something cheaper?” suppliers can ask other buyers. Although prices could still drift, negotiating leverage has clearly shifted.
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---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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