Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
Key Takeaways:
With the return of tariff-driven trade tensions, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman delivered a sobering yet rational outlook on the June 2025 WASDE and broader commodity landscape in his latest webinar, “Commodity Outlook in a Trump Tariff World.” Suderman laid out the core market theme in simple terms: price is a function of supply and demand, but modified by the flow of money. That flow is increasingly shaped by political decisions—none more influential than the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs.
Suderman noted that while April saw markets fear an all-out trade war, sentiment has shifted toward a more measured, deal-making outlook. But volatility remains. “We’re probably somewhere in the middle,” he said, referencing a Trade War Continuum slide from the presentation. It shows a spectrum from global recession to economic expansion based on tariff outcomes, underlining just how speculative current pricing can be.
Chart of Trade War Continuum
Source: Arlan Suderman
Suderman explained that tariff impacts are not yet fully visible in inflation data. Consumer inflation expectations have surged, but core CPI remains relatively stable, and markets are pricing in lower inflation over the next two years. This divergence is visible in the StoneX Commodity Tracker vs. US 2-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate which shows a correlation divergence between the inflation forecast measure and commodity price index.
Chart of StoneX Commodity Tracker and US 2 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (Daily)
Source: Arlan Suderman, Market Intelligence Interactive Reports
On China, Suderman cautioned against expectations for a broad trade deal, highlighting a strategic stall by President Xi’s administration. China’s rare earth mineral leverage—used in everything from EVs to weapons systems—has emerged as a key bargaining chip. As Suderman emphasized, “They’re keeping it as a leverage tool.” This adds long-term risk to global commodity supply chains, especially in tech and defense.
Markets are waiting for clarity on Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs), which could shift corn and soybean demand. Used cooking oil imports from China have already dropped nearly 100%, pushing up demand for domestic tallow, fats, and oils. This, along with tightening global grain and oilseed stocks, adds upward pressure on prices. In his breakdown of USDA estimates, Suderman flagged risks around overstated export projections and underappreciated weather volatility. He warned that even a 5% drop in corn yield could force rationing. To underscore that point, the 30-Day Rainfall Map shows exceptional rainfall in the Midwest—helpful now but setting up for flash drought risk if conditions shift.
Chart of 30-Day Rainfall
Source: Arlan Suderman, Commodity Weather Group, Market Intelligence
Watch the June episode on demand here.
Don’t miss Arlan’s monthly analysis and insights. Register today and receive advance notification before the next Commodity and Economic Outlook webinar.
Register Here
–– Written by: Andy Catsimanes
–– Expert: Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Ukraine's sustained strikes on Russia's tanker fleet have shut down shipping through the Azov Sea, forcing Russian wheat exporters to find costlier routes to market. Bertrand Oesterle unpacks how the disruption is reshaping Black Sea wheat logistics, freight costs and futures pricing.
July 15 – We’re back to good news being good news, with the stock futures jumping in response to another round of good news on the inflation front this morning, as headline Producer Price Index (PPI) showed deflation in June, falling 0.3% month-on-month versus market expectations of holding flat. This is leading stock futures to point to a roughly flat open as traders weigh the improving inflationary picture against fresh geopolitical escalations both in the Middle East and Black Sea. The VIX meanwhile remains muted, falling to hover near 16.15 at the time of writing, close to a fresh low for the week. The dollar is in the red again, trading near 100.85 after sharp losses yesterday in the wake of the cool CPI data. Treasuries are in the red as well, with 10-year yields trading below 4.60% and 2-year yields trading near 4.16%. Crude oil is slightly in the green after big gains to start the week, with nearby WTI trading around $80.20 and nearby Brent trading around $85.20 at the time of writing, both roughly in line with where they sat one month ago. The ags are mostly higher to start the day, led by the wheat complex in response to rising tensions in the Black Sea that we’ll outline in more depth below.
Brazil's record corn production has reshaped global grain markets, but the forces that delivered bumper harvests may not be enough to sustain future growth. As profit margins tighten and competing crops become more attractive, South America's largest producer could enter a new phase of slower expansion.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
