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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 11

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

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September 11 – The major stock indexes are all up roughly 1% at midday, with the VIX cooling notably to hang below 15.7, erasing yesterday's gains. The dollar continues to linger around unchanged, currently trading at 99.06. The front-end of the treasury yield curve continues to push higher amid increasingly hawkish rate expectations, with 2-year yields up to 4.615%, while 10-year yields are up more modestly to 4.955%, and 30-year yields are slightly lower on the day at 5.347%. Crude oil is still in the red as traders take weekly profits and assess Monday’s planned talks in Oman, with nearby WTI trading near $99.6 and nearby Brent trading near $105.2 at the time of writing. The ags are largely mixed, with corn reversing course and rebounding to trade in the green following the release of this morning’s September WASDE.

U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply from August into September, with this morning’s headline Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan falling to 47.8 from the 51.7 seen in August, significantly below the average estimate of a much more modest decline to 51.0 and marking the lowest reading since May. The deterioration was primarily in consumers’ future expectations, falling to 45.8 in September from the 51.5 seen in August, sharply below the expected 50.5 and well below even the lowest estimate of 48.3. Current economic conditions saw the most strength, slipping from August’s final 51.9 reading to 50.9, only modestly below the expected 51.3 print. This morning’s data also showed a significant resurgence in consumer inflation expectations, with one-year rising to 4.6% from the 4.0% seen in August and marking the highest since June. Longer-term inflation expectations rose more modestly, with five-year seen at 3.4%, up only slightly from the 3.3% seen in June, July, and August, but still the highest since May. The rationale behind the deterioration is not a huge surprise, with Surveys of Consumers Direction Joanne Hsu noting: “with a resurgence in fuel prices and trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressures on their pocketbooks to come.” It’s also worth noting that today is just the preliminary reading for September, with updated final numbers due out on September 25th.

Weekly corn and soybean export sales both surpassed their top-end estimates on this morning’s holiday delayed report for the week ending September 3rd, coming in at 75.9 million bushels and 96.9 million bushels, respectively. Unsurprisingly, Mexico was the featured destination on the corn side, with USDA also reporting flash sales of 264k metric tons (10.4 million bushels) of corn to Mexico this morning, while China was the featured destination on the soybean side. Weekly wheat export sales fell to a marketing year low of only 7.1 million bushels, below the low-end estimate of 9.2 million. Milo (sorghum) sales were relatively disappointing as well at only 0.5 million bushels, with current 2026/27 commitments at their lowest level at this time in at least the last 15 years.

USDA pegged this year’s U.S. corn crop at 15.800 billion bushels, down 213 million month-on-month and effectively right in line with the average analyst estimate of 15.785 billion. This was driven by a 2.2 bushel per acre cut in yield, down to 178.5 bushels per acre, also right above the average estimate of 178.2. Corn plantings were revised very slightly higher from August’s 96.7M up to 96.8M, but harvested acres fell from 88.6M down to 88.5M, reflecting increased abandonment. U.S. corn ending stocks fell by a net 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion, with the drop in production partially offset by a 150-million-bushel cut in 2026/27 feed and residual demand, though 2025/26 was left alone, likely to be cut next month. It’s worth noting this pushed the 2026/27 U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio below that psychologically important 10% level, with prices reacting in turn. The U.S. soybean crop was pegged at 4.535 billion bushels, up 16 million month-on-month with yield raised 0.1 to 52.8 bushels per acre while both planted and harvested acres rose by 0.1 to now sit at 86.9M and 85.9M acres, respectively. 2026/27 exports were raised by 25 million bushels to now sit at 1.685 billion, reflecting the strong pace of export sales being driven by China. All in all, 2026/27 soybean ending stocks fell 10 million bushels to sit at 310 million, above the average trade estimate of a larger decline to 298 million. Wheat saw some by class changes, but the headline numbers were ultimately left alone, save for a $0.20/bu increase in average farm price received to $6.40/bu.

World stocks all came in above their respective average estimates, though corn and soybeans saw reductions from August. Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports were cut by a combined 4 million metric tons, reflecting the ongoing restrictions to commodity movement in the Black Sea. In South America, the only notable adjustments were made to reflect Brazil’s growing ethanol demand, with 2025/26 production raised 1 million metric tons but exports cut by 2 million metric tons, while 2026/27 corn exports were cut by 1 million metric tons as well.  

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