Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, outlines why expiring U.S. tariff suspensions and supportive crop weather are driving this week’s price action.
Key Takeaways
U.S. 90-day tariff pauses end between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning
Favorable 15-day Midwest outlook triggers double-digit corn and soy losses
EU and Vietnam deals hint at frameworks that could lift commodity demand
Tariff Deadlines Steer Market Sentiment
“Tariffs I think are going to be the primary story this week” states Suderman. Reciprocal duties set on April 2 resume for more than 100 nations if no agreement is reached, while 18 key countries race to finalise frameworks before Wednesday. Two accords—Britain and Vietnam—are already signed, and the European Commission signalled optimism after a Monday call with President Trump.
Weather Drives Grain Price Pressure
Return-from-holiday trading lived up to its reputation. Suderman notes traders “started dumping on the markets” once models showed a largely benign Midwestern 15-day forecast through the corn pollination period. Corn, soybeans and wheat opened with double-digit losses, shifting near-term focus squarely to temperature and precipitation over the next 30–45 days.
Crude Oil Resilience Versus OPEC Output
Overnight selling followed reports that OPEC will raise August output above expectations, yet crude “recovered and erased those losses by this morning’s trade”. Investors appear more fixated on potential global demand gains if multiple tariff deals stimulate growth.
China, EU and Shifting Trade Alliances
The Vietnam framework includes a 40% tariff on Chinese trans-shipments, a clause Suderman believes could recur elsewhere. “Some of those may be significantly positive for commodities”. Meanwhile, some scheduled EU-China anniversary events in Beijing have been quietly cancelled, underscoring strained ties and prompting Beijing to threaten retaliation. With BRICS leaders absent from last week’s Brazil summit, Suderman argues momentum has swung back toward Washington.
Looking Ahead
“The Ags look to be facing this weather market going forward, which for the time being in negative”, states Suderman, but tariff outcomes could spark volatility across all commodity classes. He adds that market participants will monitor any late-hour extensions, the status of EU negotiations, and China’s appetite for concessions should trade pressure intensify.
Make Market Insights Your Competitive Advantage
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary across commodities, equities, currencies and more. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free 14-day trial.
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
