Daily Coffee Report 6/15/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
How New U.S. Tariffs Could Spike Your Coffee Price Overnight
How New U.S. Tariffs Could Spike Your Coffee Price Overnight
StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Manager Fernando Maximiliano examines the consequences of new U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee.
Key Takeaways
- U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee threaten global supply chains and pricing
- American consumers and the coffee industry could face higher costs
- Brazilian exporters risk losing significant market share
Tariffs Raise Major Challenges for Coffee Supply
Fernando Maximiliano explained that with Brazil producing 40% of the world’s arabica coffee and supplying a third of U.S. imports, new tariffs would hit exporters hard. In 2024, Brazil shipped over 8 million bags of coffee to the U.S., representing more than 16% of all Brazilian exports.
Implications for American Consumers and Industry
Higher tariffs are likely to raise prices and complicate sourcing for American coffee companies. As Maximiliano highlighted, “the American industry will also face a challenging period as well as the Brazilian exporters”. He noted that more than 80% of Brazilian coffee exports to the U.S. are arabica, and alternative sources are limited. Other major exporters like Colombia already sell most of their coffee to the U.S., making rapid adjustments difficult.
Inflation Pressures and Market Reactions
Consumers are already facing high coffee inflation, with roast and ground coffee prices up 32% in the U.S. Tariffs would add another “layer of inflation on the coffee prices” as costs are passed down. Futures prices in New York could rise due to tighter supplies, while higher availability in Brazil could lower prices domestically. Maximiliano noted, “this is bullish to New York… but bearish to the physical market in Brazil”.
Global Ripple Effects and Policy Uncertainty
The impact of U.S. tariffs extends beyond Brazil and the U.S. Other coffee exporters like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Mexico are also subject to U.S. tariffs, limiting alternatives for importers. Maximiliano pointed out, “in the end, who’s going to suffer more is the consumer”. As negotiations continue, the coffee industry faces a period of significant uncertainty and volatility.
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--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Fernando Maximiliano, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Manager
- Coffee
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