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Josh Linville, VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, examines the shifting dynamics in global fertilizer markets amid export changes, demand pressures, and tariff risks.
Linville notes that China’s potential to export 3 million tons of urea in 2025 is a significant reversal from last year’s 262,000 tons. He emphasizes the timing could be crucial as the bulk of the exports may hit markets in a narrow 4-5 month window.
India’s recent tender results, which reached nearly 1.5 million tons of urea, point to high ongoing demand. Linville highlights the contrast with previous tenders that fell short, adding “there’s a lot of offers looking at the marketplace and saying India is our best sell”.
The situation in India is especially delicate regarding phosphate, with stockpiles at risk of repeating the 2021 crisis. “Farmers started to riot. They started to pillage retail locations,” Linville warns, underlining how tight supplies and reduced Chinese exports may trigger further instability.
With Trump threatening new tariffs on Russian goods, Linville outlines the stakes. “They are the largest urea provider” to the US, he explains, adding that blocking Russian fertilizer could repeat last spring’s shortages. “We are starting fertilizer year 26 in a worst spot”, he cautions.
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---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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