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Marco Saggese, StoneX Vice President of Clearing & Execution Sales, discusses how local and global oddities shape oil prices in Europe.
Saggese explains that pricing is determined through storage basins in Antwerp, Rotterdam and Amsterdam, collectively known as ARA. These hubs form the basis of daily price reporting for physical oil, which in turn guides the derivatives market. “It is about the oil that is moving within that space in that area”.
Weather events are a primary driver of regional disruptions. Cold fronts increase heating oil demand, while milder winters can cause stockpiles and lower prices. “Weather is one of the main influences that we see”. These shifts are especially important for gasoil products, which include diesel and heating oil.
The Rhine River is a key delivery channel, but its navigability fluctuates. “River levels are either too high, which means the barges can't go under the bridges, or too low and they scrape along the bottom.” This creates bottlenecks that leave inland markets undersupplied, even when storage is high in ARA hubs.
Global inventory differences also influence European pricing. Saggese outlines how low stocks in one region and high stocks in another can open an “arbitrage window”, making long-distance imports temporarily viable. Once local inventories rise, the window closes as freight costs outweigh margins. “We are looking for a balance across the world”, he concludes.
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---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
---- Expert: Marco Saggese, StoneX Vice President of Clearing & Execution Sales
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