How Big are This Year's Crops? Corn and Soybean Yield Possibilities Explained
Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodity Economist, explains the outlook for US corn and soybean yields and what could drive market volatility this season.
Key Takeaways
Yield models show a wide range of outcomes for corn and soybeans
Export demand, especially from China, remains uncertain
August weather could determine the final size of this year’s crops
Yield Models and Early Crop Ratings
Suderman highlights that yield models for both corn and soybeans currently show strong potential, with corn models in the mid to upper 180s and soybean models above 53 bushels per acre. He notes, “August is the month that really determines the size of the soybean crop”, emphasizing the importance of weather in the coming weeks.
Uncertainty in Export Demand
Export outlook, particularly to China, is a major uncertainty. Suderman states, “We’ve seen zero evidence” of typical July buying by China, while Brazilian soybeans remain competitive. Policy changes and trade agreements could also affect demand for US crops.
Supply and Price Scenarios
Suderman explores scenarios where yields could swing significantly based on weather. A strong August could boost yields and weigh on prices, while adverse conditions could tighten supplies and support the market. For corn, he discusses the risk of pollination issues, noting reports of “yields that are 60% or more off of what they normally get off of those fields”.
Risk Management and Market Impact
Given the high level of uncertainty, Suderman stresses the importance of risk management: “You need to have a risk management plan in place here”. He concludes that the next three to four weeks will bring greater clarity as new data and crop tour results are released, likely shifting market sentiment.
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