Why US Imports from China Are Dropping and Who Wins Next
Tom Beney, StoneX SVP of Ocean Freight, explores the evolving landscape of shipping between the US and China, highlighting key changes in trade flows and market pressures.
Key Takeaways
US container imports from China are up, but China’s share is falling as Southeast Asia gains
Chinese importers are sourcing more grain and coal from Brazil and Australia, reducing US market share
Overcapacity and new regulations are creating cyclical risks in shipping markets
Changing Container and Bulk Shipping Patterns
Container volumes from China to the US fluctuate seasonally, with lows during the Chinese Lunar New Year and peaks ahead of US holidays. “China is the largest exporter of finished products into the USA, with about 16.5% of the total goods imported overall”. However, recent trade tensions and tariff threats have shifted sourcing, with Southeast Asia benefitting as US importers seek alternatives.
Bulk shipping has seen similar changes. “China is the largest consumer of coal worldwide with consuming over 4 billion tons of coal per year”. Now, China is sourcing more grain and coal from Brazil and Australia rather than the US, particularly since the start of the trade war discussions.
Energy Flows and Tariff Impacts
China previously imported US crude oil and natural gas, but tariffs have disrupted these trades. “By June 2025, no shipments have arrived of U.S. crude in Chinese ports”. US exporters have lost share to Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia. Similarly, US natural gas exports to China have halted due to a 125% tariff, causing a sharp shift in energy trade flows.
The Self-Righting Mechanism of Shipping Markets
Shipping markets rely on a cycle of supply and demand. “Vessel scrapping is what I call the self-righting mechanism of the freight markets”. Aging vessels and costly regulations push shipowners to scrap ships when markets slump, particularly if earnings fall below operating expenses for extended periods. The drive to zero carbon has made ordering new ships challenging and kept scrapping rates low.
Risks Ahead for Global Shipping
Overcapacity, regulatory uncertainty, and evolving trade flows mean the shipping market faces new risks. “There’s a growing theory that even China has possibly peaked in its oil consumption way earlier than initially analysts were expecting”. As new vessels come online and demand softens, a market slump is likely, triggering increased vessel scrapping and testing shipowner resilience.
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---- Expert: Tom Beney, StoneX SVP of Ocean Freight
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