By: Matt Weller, Head of Market Research
The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the markets since 1990.
As always, these seasonal tendencies are just historical averages, and any individual month or year may vary from the historic average, so it’s important to complement these seasonal leans with alternative forms of analysis to create a long-term successful trading strategy. In other words, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Seasonality – S&P 500 (Price-Only)
Chart Source: TradingView, StoneX.Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Historically, July has been a solid month for US stocks, with the broad S&P 500 index sporting an average (price-only) return of 1.4% over the last 35 years, tied for the third-best month. Interestingly, the S&P 500 has finished higher in each of the last 9 Julys, an impressive streak that could stretch to a decade over the next few weeks if economic data and US trade policy don’t deteriorate.
Nasdaq 100 Seasonality – NDX (Price-Only)
Chart Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Looking at the above chart, the Nasdaq 100 has historically seen solid performance in July, to the tune of +2.1% since 1990. Like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 burst out to record highs last month, putting the momentum firmly in the bulls’ camp. With heavily-weighted “Magnificent 7” names like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms/Facebook in record territory of their own, the path of least resistance remains higher for now.
Volatility Index Seasonality – VIX
Chart Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
July has historically been a month where stock market volatility rises, with the VIX index rising by an average of 5.0% since 1990. Following the seasonal trend, the VIX declined last month to drop below 17 (approaching the 2023-2024 average in the mid-teens). Uncertainty around US trade policies, fiscal policy, and geopolitical tensions continues to decline, but those themes will be critical for anyone interested in volatility to monitor throughout this summer and beyond.
Gold Seasonality – XAU/USD
Chart Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Turning our attention to commodities, July has historically been the third-most bullish month for gold performance, with an average rise of 0.9% going back to 1990. The yellow metal took a breather in both May and June, consolidating entirely within April’s range and finishing essentially unchanged near the $3300 level. After a two-month consolidation, gold is well positioned to extend its historic rally amidst still-falling interest rates globally, trade uncertainty, and a well-established uptrend going back to late 2022, and now the seasonal trend aligns with those bullish fundamental factors.
WTI Crude Oil Seasonality – WTI Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Last but not least, WTI Crude Oil has historically gained ground in July, with an average gain of +0.8% over the last 35 years. WTI was volatile in June amidst the airstrikes between Israel, Iran, and (eventually) the US, but with geopolitical tensions simmering down as of writing, oil prices remain below a nearly 2-year bearish trend line, limiting the prospect of substantial gains for now. A confirmed break above that barrier in the $75 area would be needed to shift the longer-term trend back in favor of the bulls.
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-- Written by: Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
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