By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
When four times more demand arrives for a stock than the available supply can absorb, the pressure lands not at the exchange but at the dealing desk, hours before trading begins. The SpaceX IPO illustrates this gap in sharp relief. Before the official $135 per share price could anchor any trade, dealing desks were already pricing the company's total value, struggling to manage the one-sided buy flow.
Alex Ridgers heads the Global Retail Dealing Desk at StoneX, where his team manages IPO execution directly for retail clients across multiple equity markets. Where most commentary on IPO mechanics focuses on the underwriter, Ridgers operates on the valuation side of the chain, where the real value post the false IPO price is considered.p>
The structural difference between an official IPO price and what retail investors actually pay is built in a window that runs before any exchange opens. Because the confirmed per-share price is not set until the morning of the open, dealing desks price the company by total valuation rather than per share. "We know with X million shares times this price, this is how much it's worth," Ridgers says, adding that client flow moves that internal figure in real time. "If we're seeing nothing but buyers, we're going to move our price up," he notes. By the time SpaceX's open approached, that dynamic had pushed the pre-market to a $2.2 trillion valuation against the official $1.77 trillion listing price.
"We have to limit exactly how much, because we can't allow clients to buy in unlimited amounts," Ridgers notes, explaining that the risk of unlimited fills sits on the desk as much as it does with the client. Managing strong first-day expectations from the fractional allocation adds further pressure. Two-way client flow had SpaceX expected to open up around 20%, with Ridgers pointing to approximately $160 per share as the implied market consensus.
"Dealers have got to transfer the risks by the end of the first day, from the valuation market into the stock," Ridgers says of his dealers, who enter IPO day holding positions in the pre-market valuation that must be fully unwound once the live stock is trading. The official open, expected after 9:30am New York time, rarely arrives on schedule, with a large auction preceding the first trade and extending the uncertainty. Market makers add a further layer of complexity, likely pushing prices early in the session before selling into the retail demand that builds through the day as investors who missed allocation attempt to buy in. Against all of this, Ridgers says the single biggest factor separating a functional dealing desk from a stressed one is composure. "The more you shout at your staff and the more you get people stressed about making mistakes, the more they're going to make a mistake."
From detailed guides on how to trade major assets to quarterly market outlooks and special reports, we offer FREE access to the articles you need to successfully implement "global macro" style trading!
Sign Up See our financial videos hub
--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX TV
--- Expert: Alex Ridgers, Global Head of Retail Dealing, StoneX
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
With OpenAI and Anthropic preparing for public markets, the financial opacity that has defined frontier AI investing is about to end. The same profitability metrics that govern every public software company will now apply to the firms commanding the sector's highest valuations.
When demand for a new stock runs four times the available supply, the price retail investors see is already shaped by a market running in the background. Alex Ridgers of StoneX explains the pre-market mechanics that determine where IPOs actually open and who gets in.
Market leadership may be entering a new phase as investors reassess where future returns will come from. Rising scrutiny of AI spending plans is shifting attention from growth narratives toward profitability, capital discipline and new opportunities elsewhere in the market.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
