Crop Tour in Focus; Confirmation of High U.S. Yields?
Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales, joins Fiona Cincotta to discuss the recent volatility in global grain and oilseed markets.
Key Takeaways
Soybean rally fuelled by Trump comments, acreage shifts and strong U.S. demand
Corn area surged while wheat hit contract lows under spillover pressure
European weather, Russian supply and trade with China shaped outlook
Soybean Rally and U.S. Crop Conditions
The soybean market rallied following surprising political and agricultural developments. As Oesterle explained, “Trump making that announcement that China will come in to buy four times as much soybeans… made the market rally”. Acreage shifts from soybean to corn, dryness in parts of the U.S., and record soy crush figures also supported prices. Yet crop conditions remain strong at 68% good to excellent, leaving room for a potential ceiling on prices.
Corn Expansion and Market Impact
The USDA report revealed a sharp increase in corn acreage to 97.3 million acres, compared with 95.2 million previously. This caught the market off guard, pushing corn lower and dragging wheat prices with it. Oesterle noted that “the yield was also amended to 188.8 bushels per acre”, aligning with survey expectations but adding to pressure. Crop conditions at 71% good to excellent highlight a solid production outlook.
Global Grain Pressures
In South America, Argentina and Brazil posted larger crop estimates, while China imported a record 11.67 million tons of soybeans in July. Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola further complicated trade flows. Europe meanwhile faced heat, with French maize ratings falling from 85% to 65% good to excellent, and total maize output estimates slipping to around 56 million tons.
Wheat Dynamics and Euronext Fund Roll
Wheat was pressured by corn’s decline, reaching contract lows in Chicago and Paris. Russia’s large crop estimates and export pick up added further supply weight. Ukraine and EU updates showed mixed quality but adequate availability. The Euronext front roll became a focal point, with heavy December open interest likely to drive volatility into November. As Oesterle concluded, “Dec–March is going to be in focus… people are already speculating that we’re going to see a similar, if not bigger move”.
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---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
---- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales
Grains & Oilseeds
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