By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Josh Linville, VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, joined Johanna Botta to discuss the latest moves disrupting global fertilizer markets.
Linville explained that India’s latest urea tender offered almost 5.6 million tonnes, far more than expected. “Even if you double counted it, it’s still a big, big number”. This sudden surge offsets earlier bullish expectations and highlights the weight of supply in the market.
Chinese urea exports have quickly shifted from near zero in early 2025 to potentially more than 4 million tonnes. Linville described them as “the boogie man of the world”. He noted that this supply flood gives buyers leverage, as many step back and delay purchases while prices face downward pressure.
While farm margins remain thin, anhydrous ammonia appears to offer relative value compared with urea and UAN. Linville highlighted that some Midwest farmers could save $20 to $40 per acre by switching. “Mother Nature will make the final determination of how big or small the fall is”.
The outlook for phosphate and potash remains uncertain. Some expect higher potash applications as farmers avoid expensive phosphate, while others foresee cuts across both due to weak profitability. Linville warned that if big harvests deplete nutrients, delayed fertilizer demand could resurface suddenly at the start of application season.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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India’s next urea tender is becoming the defining event for global fertilizer markets as prices weaken and buyers regain leverage. The outcome could determine whether the recent correction deepens further or stabilises heading into the second half of 2026.
Fertilizer markets are holding together despite prolonged geopolitical disruption, but the stability is increasingly being driven by weaker farmer demand rather than healthier supply conditions. Rising input costs and financial stress are forcing growers to scale back nutrient application rates, potentially reshaping global fertilizer trade flows into 2027.
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