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David Scutt, FOREX.com APAC Market Analyst, discusses Australia’s move to monthly inflation reporting and what it means for the RBA and markets.
Scutt explains how the shift to monthly inflation data stems from a 2022 remark by former RBA Governor Philip Lowe, who admitted that quarterly reporting left Australia behind. What began as an experimental release by the ABS is now becoming the main gauge, bringing the country in line with other major economies.
The monthly measure captures different parts of the CPI basket in each release. The first month leans heavily on goods, the second adds services, and the third aligns closely with the traditional quarterly print. This structure provides more frequent updates but still leaves gaps policymakers need to watch.
In the latest update, annual inflation rose to 3 per cent, driven by electricity costs that surged more than 24 per cent before easing with new support measures. Core measures showed a calmer picture, with the trimmed mean easing to 2.6 per cent, yet rents and new dwelling costs continued to climb, raising concerns that housing pressures have not fully peaked.
Markets reacted quickly, cutting the odds of a November rate cut to just over 50 per cent. Scutt highlights that while inflation is close to target, the RBA is also closely watching the labour market. With unemployment holding at 4.2 per cent, any deviation from forecasts could influence the pace of policy adjustments.
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--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: David Scutt, FOREX.com APAC Market Analyst
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