Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales, explains how China’s buying patterns and Argentina’s export policy changes are reshaping global grain and oilseed markets.
Key Takeaways
China shifts soybean buying toward Brazil and Argentina
Argentina export tax removal makes grain more competitive
US exporters face weaker demand in peak season
China Moves Away from US Supply
Oesterle noted that a recent call between US and Chinese leaders focused more on TikTok than agriculture, leaving grains unmentioned. This omission signalled to markets that Beijing is not rushing back to US supply. He explained that US exporters see this as a setback during a critical selling window, with soybeans exports already 19% behind USDA targets. “Corn and soybean were not mentioned”, a detail that weighed heavily on sentiment.
Argentina Removes Grain Export Taxes
Argentina’s government surprised markets by scrapping export taxes on soybeans, soybean oil, and corn until US Dollar reserves are rebuilt. Oesterle emphasized that this move immediately improved Argentine competitiveness, cutting soybean prices by about $3 per bushel. He described it as a policy aimed at attracting export sales quickly, with China responding by buying close to one million tons of soybeans the very next day. According to him, “it makes the Argentine exports much more competitive” , which in turn squeezes US opportunities further.
Crop Yields Slide in US And Europe
Harvest data in the US and crop surveys in Europe are now pointing to weaker yield outcomes. French maize ratings remain stable but European forecasts have already been cut twice, while US farmers are reporting poor early harvests. Oesterle said many fields being harvested first are the lowest yielding, raising concerns that national averages will fall below USDA’s current estimates. He explained that “farmers have started with the worst yielding areas”, reinforcing expectations of cuts in upcoming reports.
Global Buyers Support Grain Demand
Despite bearish supply news, Oesterle highlighted areas of steady demand helping to stabilize markets. He pointed to North African buyers of soybean meal and consistent corn purchases from Mexico and South Korea. Wheat demand also remained active, with Algeria and Jordan tendering for significant volumes and Turkey seeking new barley imports. Oesterle said this steady flow of tenders shows that “bits and pieces of bullish potential” remain in play even as overall sentiment stays weak.
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---- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales
Grains & Oilseeds
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