Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
Head of Market Analysis
Rhona O’Connell, StoneX Head of Market Analysis for EMEA & Asia, explains what is fueling the gold rally and what could come next.
O’Connell explained that exchange-traded products have seen notable inflows in recent weeks, with around 45 tonnes of gold added across four sessions. “At current prices a tonne is over $900 million, so 45 tonnes is a fair chunk of change”. She argued this suggests new participants are moving into the market alongside professionals and central banks.
While professional buying has been strong, grassroots demand has been more mixed. O’Connell noted that Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian buyers initially stayed on the sidelines as prices surged, but have recently started to return. China’s jewelry market remains weak, while India is poised for a seasonal boost.
O’Connell emphasized the importance of India’s harvest cycle and festival season for gold demand. “Something on the order of 60% of the Indian population depends on harvests for their income”. A strong monsoon supports disposable income, much of which traditionally flows into gold purchases. With Diwali approaching, she expects increased buying from Indian households.
Beyond seasonal and physical drivers, O’Connell warned that U.S. policy uncertainty could play a pivotal role in gold’s direction. She highlighted upcoming Supreme Court rulings that could affect perceptions of central bank independence. “That in my view is going to be one of the most important decisions, certainly as far as the gold market is concerned”.
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary across commodities, equities, currencies and more. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free trial.
Sign up for a free Market Intelligence trial today See our financial videos hub---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
---- Expert: Rhona O'Connell, StoneX Head of Market Analysis
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Gold volatility relative to the U.S. dollar index has climbed to more than twice its historical norm, leaving the metal highly reactive to currency and interest rate moves. A hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve outlook shows how that sensitivity turns Treasury yield shocks into outsized selloffs.
Gold's 17.6% slide from its peak gathered pace when a long-running trendline gave way, turning old support into the first hurdle for any recovery. A breakout from its descending channel now meets momentum that refuses to confirm it.
Lower bond yields, lower oil, weaker dollar...
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
