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Josh Linville, StoneX VP of Fertilizer, discusses the slowdown in phosphate demand, falling urea prices, and the uncertainty around India’s next tender.
Linville explained that farmers are facing tough economics, with grain prices low and phosphate values still high. “We’ve hit the worst, ever all time… farmers are probably going to cut back”. He noted that many producers simply lack the funds to apply normal levels this fall. However, he suggested demand could rebound if government support arrives or if large harvests deplete soil nutrients after combines finish.
China’s return to exporting urea has put heavy downward pressure on global prices. “All these tons are sitting out there… putting a lot of bearishness in the marketplace”. Linville highlighted that buyers now feel they can negotiate more effectively with values sliding. The uncertainty lies in who will step in first to purchase and at what price level.
India’s delayed announcement on its final 2025 tender has left the market in suspense. “They’ll put out the rumors… it’s a great tool to try and push price ideas lower”. Linville said that if India comes in quickly, it could gain the market’s sole attention. But if the decision is delayed, prices may continue to fall before other buyers step in and competition pushes values higher.
Looking forward, Linville warned about significant risks of demand destruction. “We are probably expecting somewhere between 25 and 50 percent demand destruction this fall”. He stressed that reduced applications could hurt future soil fertility if high yields deplete nutrients. The balance between supply, farmer budgets, and India’s final move will set the tone for fertilizer markets into next season.
The Farmer Fertilizer Focus Plan will lift the veil on market trends, factors to watch for, and unique perspectives to consider for your operation, helping you make more informed, financially beneficial decisions. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free 14-day trial.
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--- Written by Gus Farrow, Head of StoneX TV
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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