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Alex Ridgers, StoneX Global Head of Retail Dealing Desk, discusses why equities remain strong even as the U.S. faces a government shutdown.
Ridgers explains that while the shutdown has major headlines, markets see it as temporary. The Anti Deficiency Act prevents spending without approval, leading to furloughs, but workers are eventually paid. As he notes, “markets get quite blasé about these things that they don’t think affects them”.
Institutional investors continue to allocate capital even during uncertainty. With more than $20 trillion in annual bond purchases compared with $1.5 trillion in equity inflows, even small reallocations boost stocks. “It only needs a slight reallocation from bonds into equities and all of a sudden you’ve got these rallies”.
Markets are watching jobs closely. Nonfarm payrolls may be delayed, but ADP data already shows declines. Ridgers highlights that weak numbers support rate cuts, which equities welcome. “That weakness in the economy is helping equity markets a lot more because they’re like well great more rate cuts to come”.
Ridgers estimates around 14 days, though he cautions it is only a guess. He stresses that previous shutdowns often saw markets rally once resolved. “If you sell into this thinking I’ve got to sell, what happens when there’s a resolution all of a sudden… the natural thing is a rally”.
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--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Alex Ridgers, StoneX Global Head of Retail Dealing
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