Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Vincent Deluard, StoneX Group’s Director of Global Market Strategy, explains how global debt has surged beyond $320 trillion and what this dependence on cheap credit means for markets and stability.
Deluard explains that the headline total matters less than the pace of growth and the ability to service it. He notes that borrowing on one balance sheet is savings on another, so aggregate debt tends to rise with output and population. Still, rapid increases can strain borrowers if cash flows do not keep up with interest costs. As he puts it, “in a double-entry accounting system, every debt is also an asset”, but sustainability hinges on who must service it and at what rate.
Sovereigns are unlike households or firms because they can levy taxes and create currency. Deluard highlights these as “two powers the private sector does not have”, which historically supported the view of sovereign debt as safest. He observes that in parts of Europe, corporations have recently borrowed more cheaply than their governments as fiscal credibility erodes. That shift, he warns, shows how limits on taxation and monetary control can weaken the perception of government safety in credit markets.
After years of easy money, higher interest rates are revealing weak spots across sectors. Deluard observed that “there’s always a debt crisis somewhere”, often triggered when borrowing costs rise faster than income. He cited the 2022–2023 tightening cycle as one of the most severe in decades, exposing vulnerabilities in commercial real estate and regional banks. As liquidity tightens, he said investors should watch for stress in shadow-lending markets where oversight is limited.
Deluard argues that modern tax systems encourage debt over equity, giving borrowers structural incentives to take on more risk. “Interest payments are pretax”, he noted, while dividends are taxed after earnings. This bias, he said, makes economies reliant on cheap credit and discourages balance-sheet discipline. Leveling the playing field between debt and equity would be a first step toward reducing systemic vulnerability.
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary across commodities, equities, currencies and more. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free trial.
Sign up for a free Market Intelligence trial today See our financial videos hub---- Written by Gus Farrow, Head of StoneX TV
---- Expert: Vincent Deluard, StoneX Director of Global Macro Strategy
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held rates on the same day and drew opposite reactions from bond markets. The split shows how communication and fiscal context, rather than the rate decision alone, now shape a central bank's standing.
Australian bond markets have rapidly repriced the outlook for interest rates after softer inflation data weakened the case for further Reserve Bank of Australia tightening. As inflation continues to moderate faster than expected, investors are increasingly questioning whether the current rate cycle has already reached its peak.
Rising real yields are signalling a broader repricing of risk that extends beyond Federal Reserve policy. Greater Treasury supply, fiscal concerns and higher term premiums could reshape valuations across global asset markets.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
