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By: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region
Base metals are regaining strength as China’s peak building months spark renewed demand and optimism in global markets. With a weaker US dollar improving trade competitiveness, and policy signals from Beijing pointing toward long-term infrastructure support, the stage is set for a broader recovery in industrial metals. Traders are now watching how these seasonal tailwinds align with macro shifts into 2026.
Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Analyst at StoneX, discusses how China’s construction season and policy outlook are shaping demand across base metals.
As China enters its “Golden September and Silver October” [21:15] construction period, activity in housing and infrastructure projects has increased metal consumption. Natalie Scott-Gray explains that this seasonality typically lifts demand for nickel, copper, aluminum and zinc [21:15], helping offset earlier market softness. The uptick reinforces expectations of a cyclical recovery across industrial metals, coinciding with stronger building and manufacturing activity through year-end.
Looking ahead, Natalie notes that “2026 will mark the start of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan” [21:15], with markets anticipating further policy support for growth. A weaker dollar, near its lowest level since 2022, continues to aid export competitiveness and investor confidence. Expectations of future US rate cuts are already warming sentiment, suggesting a more favorable macro backdrop for base metals. Together, these drivers point toward sustained demand into China’s next policy cycle.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow, Head of StoneX TV
---- Expert: Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst
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