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By: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
The Australian dollar slid nearly 4.6% from its August highs over four weeks, then rebounded from confluence support without a single weekly close below its 2025 uptrend. The Australian dollar remains in that 2025 uptrend inside a broad consolidation of lower highs and higher lows that has defined price action since the highs for the year. On the daily chart, AUD/USD has already pushed back above its September downtrend and is now testing initial resistance. Which edge of that narrowing range gives way first decides whether the Australian dollar recovery becomes a durable low or another swing inside the pattern.
Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, has spent more than 20 years trading and analyzing FX, commodities and equity indices, and has hosted a weekly strategy webinar for over a decade. He follows currency markets through a structured technical lens applied across multiple time frames, with a medium-term focus on how event risk shapes price structure.
The Australian dollar is still holding its 2025 uptrend despite a nearly 4.6% decline from its August highs, because the pullback stopped short of a weekly close below the trendline. The broader structure is a consolidation, characterized by a series of lower highs and a series of higher lows off the highs for the year. "We've been still trading within the confines of that 2025 uptrend. We did not mark a weekly close below it," Boutros says. The support zone where the Australian dollar turned higher also lines up with the 52-week moving average, adding weight to the area where the rebound began. As a result, the Australian dollar sits inside its range with the uptrend intact, but a fresh advance has yet to be confirmed.
A break back below the October open, which now lines up with former slope resistance turned support, would invalidate the Australian dollar's near-term uptrend. Even so, the bearish case for the Australian dollar needs more than that, specifically a break of the 88.6% retracement that caught the most recent lows. A move through that retracement would confirm a break of the lower consolidation trendline extending from the March and June lows. For self-directed traders, the lower edge of the Australian dollar consolidation therefore marks the dividing line between a range and a broader downtrend. Boutros sets out the downside stakes plainly, "certainly that would open up the potential for a much larger decline in Aussie dollar".
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst
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The Australian dollar has rebounded from a support zone where several key levels meet, after a four-week slide of nearly 4.6%, without breaking its 2025 uptrend. A broad pattern of lower highs and higher lows now sets the terms for both a durable recovery and a deeper decline.
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