By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Australia's cattle regions have split four ways, and the gap between them is now the single most useful thing a buyer can know about supply. Northern Australia has come through one of its strongest wet seasons in at least half a century, central eastern Australia has clawed its way back from harsh drought, southern Australia has emerged from two dry years as an active buyer, and southern Western Australia has been left behind by a weaker winter rainfall run. That divergence is not cosmetic, because it decides which regions are holding cattle, which are chasing them, and where the bid is coming from. For producers, feedlotters and exporters, the season now has to be read region by region rather than as a national number.
Ripley Atkinson is Australian Meats and Livestock Manager at StoneX in Sydney, where he tracks live cattle, beef and sheep markets and provides market analysis and risk management advisory to Australian and global livestock producers. He follows supply, demand and price fundamentals across the country's production zones, along with the export demand and trade flows that move Australian protein overseas, which is the ground this regional split sits on.
Northern Australia, the monsoonal tropics that take the bulk of their rain between October and March, has run one of its best wet seasons on record, with vast amounts of grass grown and cattle carrying strong condition out of it. Atkinson describes the year in plain terms, noting that "northern Australia in 2026 has experienced one of its best wet seasons in recent memory, if not on record, or at least in 50 years". Against that, flooding through the Gulf Country of Queensland in January was the worst in six to seven years and took cattle numbers with it, a loss that sits inside an otherwise exceptional run. Consequently, northern supply carries a quieter hole in it than the season headline suggests, and attention now shifts to the next wet season. For buyers sourcing out of the north, the condition of the cattle on offer is strong, but the count behind them is thinner than the grass implies.
Central eastern Australia, the belt running down the eastern seaboard, opened the year in harsh drought before rain returned in May and mild winter temperatures kept grass growing through the middle of the year. According to Atkinson, "it began sort of January to May in really harsh drought to dry conditions. It was a very challenging part of the year for a lot of producers with a lack of rain". As a result, producers who had been forced sellers became holders, supply into the market shortened, and demand improved on the back of grass rather than any change in the export picture. Those regions are still working through challenging seasonal conditions, so the recovery is partial rather than complete. The next test is the current spring, and Atkinson is direct about what it turns on, that "it's important that rain arrives at this time of year in spring to make sure that those producers can capture the favorable grass growing conditions".
"Emotion plays a critical role in market and price performance", Atkinson says of the Australian cattle market, and southern Australia is where that shows up as a bid. Southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia came out of two consecutive drought years in 2024 and 2025 into a multi-year high season, with mild winter temperatures supporting grass growth and cattle weight gain. That has encouraged an uptick in demand from those regions to source and secure trade stock for spring and summer, which provides a buffer and underlying support for prices rather than a one-off spike. Southern Western Australia, by contrast, runs on a winter dominant rainfall system and has been challenged this year, lagging the eastern states even as the country's central desert region has seen favorable conditions. The practical effect is a national market where cattle are being pulled south and east, and where the west is not competing for them on the same terms.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Ripley Atkinson, StoneX Australia Meats & Livestock Manager
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Australia's cattle country did not have one season this year, it had four, and each one is pushing supply and demand in a different direction. Ripley Atkinson maps the north, the central east, the south and the west, and shows where the cattle are actually moving.
September 11 – Before turning to today’s market developments, we want to acknowledge that today marks the 25th anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks. We remember the nearly 3,000 lives lost, honor the first responders and countless others affected, and reflect on the lasting impact that day had on the United States and the world. Headline CPI held steady at 3.4% in August, matching analyst estimates and tying July for the lowest print since March. The month-on-month gain of 0.4% was the hottest since May but also matched expectations. Excluding the more volatile energy and food prices, core CPI did see a slightly hotter than expected monthly gain, rising 0.3% in August, above the average estimate of 0.2% and marking the fastest uptick since April. However, the year-on-year rise of 2.4% matched expectations and represents the lowest print for the metric since March 2021, an encouraging sign.
September 10 – Headline PPI rebounded to a 5.4% year-on-year gain in August, up sharply from the upwardly revised 4.8% seen in July but only slightly above analysts' expectations of a more moderate rise to 5.3%, still bringing inflation back to center stage. In month-on-month terms, this was a 0.4% increase, up sharply from the 0.1% seen in July and the sharpest rate of gain since May. Stripping this down to core PPI, this was a 4.6% year-on-year increase, matching analyst estimates but still representing a notable uptick from the upwardly revised 4.3% seen in July. In my opinion, this is where the bigger concern lies. Obviously, much of the fears of resurgent inflation in 2026 has centered around the ongoing energy shock, which proved true in this morning’s data, but the pervasiveness of inflationary pressures at the core level, stripping out the more volatile energy sector, paints a picture of sticky inflation that does not appear ready to go away on its own. For context, this is the third highest core PPI print of 2026, only 0.3% off the three-plus year high seen back in April. We’ll get another update tomorrow with August CPI set to be released, with the average analyst estimate calling for a 3.4% headline and 2.4% core increase. The longer-term thing to keep in mind here is how much the current inflationary pressures have been concentrated at the producer level—if realized, that CPI print would be 2.0% below headline PPI. That means producers are effectively eating these costs up front, translating to near-term margin pressure, with producers historically tending to pass these costs along down the road for margin recovery which can lead to longer tails of inflation at the consumer level.
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