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Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

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Records tumble as beef production hits new highs & slaughter volumes to multi decade highs. 

What does this data tell you?

  • As I stated in the last email on this topic, sent on 19th August 2025 – the beef industry will reach cyclical highs In the cattle cycle in 2025 and 2026 – these results in their nature mirror the previous peak in 2014/15 – only this time, all metrics have surpassed that period.
  • The 5 successive seasons (generally) in major cattle country (N NSW/QLD/NT/N WA) coupled with improved herd performance has meant that this growing cattle herd we have is coming home to roost in the actual supply we’re now seeing processed.
  • Australian cattle slaughter is now running at capacity (unsurprisingly) and this is shaping to become the next major issue the beef industry faces – this is the sleeping giant that will dominate discussions if northern Australia goes dry in 2026.  
  • I’m unconvinced these large female kill rates indicate genuine herd liquidation – the fact is that even QLD/NT alone account for nearly 59% of the total national herd and large numbers of cows have been sent south to process in NSW/VIC/SA in 2025, a significant volume of younger, genetically superior heifers are following these cows to replace them, coupled with the fact that QLD/NT and other major cattle regions haven’t experienced genuine destocking or liquidation in 2025.
  • As a follow on to the point above – utilizing the FSR as a measure of herd rebuild / liquidation is increasingly becoming irrelevant – the on the ground knowledge of the cattle cycle, coupled with discussions with producers & the supply chain, tell me that the FSR is painting a false picture of the actual on the ground situation.

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Key Figures

  • Quarter 3 National Cattle Slaughter at 2.475 million head reached its highest level (of any quarter) since Q3 1978.
    • Year to Q3 Cattle Slaughter is 13% or 814,000 head higher than YT Q3 2024 slaughter volumes.
  • Beef production reached quarterly record highs of 759,000 mt – driven by stable carcase weights and multi decade highs in slaughter numbers.
    • Year to Q3 2025 beef production is 13% or 246,000 mt higher than YT Q3
  • VIC has added an additional 63,000 head in capacity in 3 ½ years since its COVID processing lows – the most significant expansion of any state in the country.

Slaughter Capacity

  • QLD operating at 100% capacity compared to 10-year quarterly averages
    • 97th percentile on record
  • NSW at 100% capacity compared to 10-year quarterly averages
    • 90th percentile on record
  • VIC at 100% capacity
    • 99th percentile on record
    • Assuming Q3 is the peak of VIC slaughter, the state has added around 12% additional capacity in the past decade, in actual volumes that translates to an additional 63,000 head / quarter of kill space.
  • Slaughter capacity is the major issue the beef industry will next grapple with in 2026 if seasonal conditions turn dry in Australia’s major cattle regions and cattle turnoff increases sharply due to a lack of feed on farm.
    • Consider the fact that the 3 major processing states (VIC/NSW/QLD) who account for 90% of total national kill are at capacity and the major cattle supply regions are not in drought à that is the issue right there.

Slaughter

  • At a categorical level, female slaughter reached its highest level (nationally) since Q3 1977
  • I’m on record saying if you wish to follow the female slaughter rate – watch NSW – I’ll admit having monitored 2025s numbers – that that assumption is wrong… the movement of cattle now across the country from one end to the other are blurring lines – meaning monitoring a states FSR as a benchmark or proxy for the entire country isn’t actually correct because so many out of state cattle are getting pulled into NSW, inflating its FSR to give a false sense of what’s going on..
    • This is why I don’t like the FSR.
  • WA kill reached its highest level in since Q4 2008 – as the capacity in that state continues to grow.
  • NSW slaughter volumes to their highest level of any quarter since 1997
  • VIC numbers rose again to make the state the second largest beef processor in the country behind QLD – relegating NSW to 3rd.
    • The actual expanded capacity in VIC has been the most significant processing development out of any of the states in the past 5 years.
  • QLD volumes have a little more upside to hit their all time throughput peaks set in 2014-15 – the additional shifts conducted at Dinmore & other large plants in SE QLD if and where required will fully push those previous throughput highs when the conditions are right.
  • Total national slaughter has gone from 38 year lows in Q1 2022 to 47 year highs in 3 and ½ years – highlighting how significant the recovery in herd numbers + slaughter capacity through workforce has been in such a short space of time.
    • That shift or timing of 3 ½ years aligns very closely with the bottom and peak in the previous cycles of 2011 – 2014 and 2017 – 2019 – indicating we’re getting close to the peak in the cattle cycle.

Beef Production & Carcase Weights

  • As suspected when I provided my Q3 estimates on slaughter & production – production volumes hit a new record high in Q3.
    • Production was also 36% or 202,000 mt higher than the 5-year quarterly average.
  • Carcase weights remain extremely strong – despite the drought in southern Australia and a sharp rise in female kill (lighter cattle) – the influence of the grainfed system and the volumes its punching out are offsetting these factors.
  • Beef Production will break 2024s record and may surpass my forecast (released in July) of 2.837 million metric tons.

 

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