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By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Grain and oilseed markets are extending their rally as fresh geopolitical pressure builds across the Black Sea. Ukraine has targeted Russia's tanker fleet in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea with a sustained campaign that has already halted shipping through the Azov channel. Russia has responded by striking port facilities in Ukraine, adding further strain to a region that moves a large share of the world's wheat. The result is a logistics squeeze that is reshaping how Russian wheat reaches export markets.
Bertrand Oesterle is Vice President of Clearing and Execution Sales at StoneX Financial Ltd in London, where he works with institutional clients on futures clearing, execution and prime brokerage across global derivatives markets, including grains and oilseeds. His coverage spans the exchange access and risk management tools that commercial participants use to trade Black Sea wheat flows, the same flows now disrupted by the Azov Sea shipping halt.
Ukraine has been relentless in its campaign against Russia's tanker fleet, hitting dozens of ships and forcing a halt to shipping through the Azov channel. The disruption prompted IKAR to cut its July Russian wheat export estimate to 2 million tons, down from 2.5 million previously. The escalation followed a generally supportive monthly report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which was quickly overshadowed by the intensifying conflict.
In response, Russia struck port facilities across Ukraine, complicating Black Sea logistics at a moment when Ukrainian output is expected to improve, with the wheat harvest projected at 22 to 23 million tons and 1.1 million tons already brought in. Chicago wheat rose by roughly 50 cents on the December 2026 contract, while Paris wheat gained about €17 on the same contract. Oesterle notes that the resulting spread move caught some large trade houses off guard. "The U26/Z26 Paris wheat spread rallied back up to –3.50, which some large trade houses have been surprised about, especially when considering the lack of demand".
"Russia has been reassuring, stating that Novorossiysk remains unaffected, and just 140 kilometers south of the Strait of Kerch", Oesterle says, pointing to the port that still handles the bulk of the country's wheat flows. Moscow has pledged that exports will continue without disruption, though likely at a higher logistical cost given recent talk of rising rail freight tariffs that exporters will need to absorb. Russian wheat exports remain free of an export tax for now, even as the physical market tells a different story than futures prices suggest. Offers and bids have both moved higher, Oesterle notes, but very little is actually trading, a gap he expects to matter again once Azov Sea shipping resumes and if Novorossiysk itself avoids damage.
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--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX TV
--- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX Vice President of Clearing and Execution Sales, Grains, EMEA
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Argentina's strong wheat harvest and a run of export tax cuts have made its wheat more competitive than wheat from rival exporters, just as Black Sea disruption bottles up Russian supply. The main remaining risk is the harvest itself, where heavier rain linked to El Niño threatens the quality that Brazilian importers rely on.
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