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By: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region
Base metals prices moved decisively higher through 2025, breaking above the trading ranges that had defined the market for much of the past three years. As of early 2026, those gains are holding, but the drivers behind them have shifted away from traditional demand signals toward policy risk, supply disruption, and investor behaviour. This change matters because price sustainability now depends less on consumption growth and more on how long exceptional conditions persist. The resulting environment leaves base metals vulnerable to sharper volatility as assumptions are tested.
Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst in the Market Intelligence department of StoneX, has more than twelve years of experience analysing LME and battery metals across EMEA and Asia. Her demand-led perspective, grounded in regional trade flows and physical market data, provides early insight into when prices begin to diverge from underlying fundamentals.
Base metals prices have broken and held above the range that defined market behaviour over the past three years. Natalie Scott-Gray notes that "prices have broken and held so far above the new normal trading range that's been created over the last three years", highlighting a structural shift in price discovery. This move reflects an environment where macro expectations, tariffs, and supply fears have overridden seasonal and demand-driven patterns. As a result, base metals prices are now more sensitive to changes in sentiment than to incremental shifts in consumption.
Investor behaviour played a growing role in sustaining base metals prices through late 2025. Scott-Gray explains that tariff risks and supply tightness "all together increasing capital inflows towards the complex by year end", particularly in copper and tin. While deficits and disruptions provided a fundamental backdrop, speculative positioning accelerated price moves beyond levels justified by balance alone. Consequently, base metals prices entering 2026 face heightened downside risk if investor expectations reverse or policy fears fade.
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--- Expert: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Analyst, StoneX
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