Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
StoneX Media
As of late June 2026, Bitcoin remains under pressure as investors reassess the impact of higher interest rates and tighter global liquidity. Although historical market cycles continue to provide a framework for analyzing price action, macroeconomic conditions have become an increasingly important influence on digital asset valuations. Institutional participation has expanded significantly over recent years, making Bitcoin more sensitive to shifts in monetary policy than during earlier crypto cycles. Understanding liquidity conditions has become just as important as analyzing technical charts.
Matt Weller, FOREX.com Senior Market Strategist, has spent years analyzing the intersection between macroeconomics, foreign exchange and digital assets. His market perspective combines technical analysis with monetary policy and capital flow dynamics, providing a broad framework for understanding how changing liquidity conditions influence Bitcoin's longer-term outlook.
Bitcoin liquidity typically contracts when central banks tighten monetary policy because fewer financial resources circulate throughout the global economy. Matt Weller notes that "central banks... are shifting in a more hawkish direction, looking to raise interest rates", following the energy shock earlier this year. Slower money supply growth reduces one of Bitcoin's strongest structural tailwinds as investors become more selective about allocating capital toward higher-risk assets. Although Bitcoin has often been viewed as an alternative monetary asset, tighter financial conditions can temporarily outweigh that investment narrative by reducing available liquidity across global markets.
Bitcoin valuations are becoming increasingly attractive, but valuation alone has rarely marked the beginning of a sustained recovery. Weller explains that tighter monetary conditions are "weighing on money supply growth. That is a key driver of Bitcoin's use case as an anti fiat store of value." Investors may need to see both improving liquidity conditions and renewed institutional demand before a durable bull market can emerge. Bitcoin ETF purchases and corporate treasury buying remain important sources of structural demand, but their influence may ultimately depend on whether global monetary conditions begin supporting broader risk appetite once again.
From detailed guides on how to trade major assets to quarterly market outlooks and special reports, we offer FREE access to the articles you need to successfully implement "global macro" style trading!
Sign Up
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Matt Weller, FOREX.com Senior Market Strategist
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Bitcoin ETF purchases are picking up again after an extended lull, bringing institutional and retail money back into the cryptocurrency. Long-term holders are also keeping their coins, so fresh demand is arriving just as dormant supply climbs.
The Treasury buyback sparked breakouts in both Bitcoin and gold, but the two markets have since gone very different ways. Gold bounces keep getting sold while Bitcoin has rallied through rising yields, a Fed hike and the failed CLARITY Act.
Bitcoin, gold and stocks are all riding the same debasement trade, but their returns look very different. Bitcoin is pulling far ahead, while higher-for-longer Federal Reserve expectations keep a lid on gold despite strong ETF demand.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
