Major soybean traders are preparing to exit the Amazon Soy Moratorium as a new law in Mato Grosso will begin stripping tax incentives from companies that remain in the conservation pact starting in January. The move reflects a shift in economic incentives rather than a sudden change in environmental posture, as firms seek to protect margins and maintain competitiveness in Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state, which harvested roughly 51 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025. Exiting the pact would effectively weaken a landmark 2006 agreement credited with saving millions of acres of rainforest, while highlighting rising tension between voluntary environmental commitments and domestic fiscal policy. For global soybean markets, the development reinforces Brazil’s structural cost advantage and long-term export dominance, adding pressure to U.S. soybeans and signaling that production growth in Brazil is being driven more by state-level economics than international ESG standards.
President Donald Trump confirmed that the U.S. carried out a direct strike on a facility inside Venezuela that he described as a major dock or logistics site used to load drugs onto boats, marking the first publicly acknowledged land strike of his administration’s campaign against alleged Venezuelan trafficking operations. The action represents a clear escalation from prior measures such as maritime interdictions, bombing boats, and blockades aimed at pressuring the Maduro government and disrupting oil exports. Trump said he had spoken with Nicolás Maduro recently but characterized the talks as unproductive, signaling that diplomatic channels are effectively stalled. Strategically, the strike blurs the line between counternarcotics enforcement and broader economic and political pressure, increases geopolitical risk around Venezuelan ports and energy infrastructure, and signals a willingness by the U.S. to expand enforcement actions beyond sanctions and naval operations if pressure on the regime fails to produce results.
USDA export inspections for the week ending Dec. 25 were lower across the board versus last year, with corn at 1.30 MMT, soybeans at 750k MT, and wheat at 302k MT, reflecting a seasonally slow holiday period rather than a structural demand shift. Corn remains the standout on a year-to-date basis, running well ahead of last year and reinforcing that demand is intact despite weekly volatility. Soybean shipments continue to lag year-ago levels as Brazil dominates nearby supply and China remains measured in its buying pace, keeping U.S. exports capped for now. Wheat remains the weakest leg, with the U.S. still struggling to compete globally, particularly against Black Sea and Southern Hemisphere origins. Overall, the data is more about timing and logistics than demand erosion, and the market is treating it as noise rather than a change in trend.
Corn
B 2000 k 500 c 4 1/4
B 200 u 460 c vs s n 460 c 3 1/8 db
B 400 w2 440p/445c strangles 6
S 400 k 455 c 14 7/8 vs 450 3/4
B 200 n 420 p 6 ¾ to 7
S 100 k 425 p 5 5/8 vs 452
B 400 k 480 c 7 1/2
B 100 n 420 p 7
B 1250 w2 440 p 2 5/8
B 100 j 415 p 2 1/8
S 1000 w1 450 p 6 7/8
B 500 h 440 p 9
B 1000 h 445 p 11 5/8
B 250 nu even cso p vs s +15 cso c ½ cr
B 1000h 440 c 12 1/2
B 1000 h 435 p 7 1/8
B 100 n 450 p vs s 200 n 430 p 1 ½ cr
B 1000 h 440 p 8 3/8 to 8 5/8
B 225 k 455 straddle vs s j 455 straddle 5 ¼ to 5 ½ db
B 500 h 430 p 5
B 200 g 445 straddles 16
S 250 h 430 p 4 3/4
B 4000 g 450 c 6 1/8 to 6 1/2
S 1000 g 450 c 6 1/8
B 2000 h 450 c 9 3/8
B 100 z27 350 p 25 1/8
B 2000 h 445 c 11 ½ to 11 5/8
B 2000 g 440 p 4 7/8 to 5 5/8
B 500 h 450/470 cs 6 1/2
B 2000 h 435 p 5 5/8 to 6 1/4
S 300 g 448 c 7 ½
B 1500 g 442 p 6 1/8 to 6 1/2
B 1000 h 440 p 8 to 8 3/8
S 100 k 430p/490c strangles 12 5/8
B 250 g 465 c 2 ¾ vs 448
On a block
S 500 k 455 c 15 ¾ vs 453
Beans
B 1000 g 1100 c vs s h 1000 p 1 ¾ db vs 1064 1/4
S 1000 g 1120 p 58 to 57
B 500 w2 1060 p, 500 w1 1050 p vs s 1000 w1 1060 p paying 1
B 500 g 1150 p 86 5/8
B 600 h 1080/1020 ps 25 5/8 vs 1063
B 250 g 1170 p 106 3/4
B 1000 g 1130 p 67 to 67 1/2
B 500 g 1140 p 77
S 600 h 1060 p 20
S 500 h 1070 p 25 1/2
B 1200 h 1100 c 10 1/8 to 11 1/8
B 400 n 1250 c vs s sd n 1200 c 1 db
S 100 h 1030p/1110c strangles 15 1/2
B 1500 g 1060 p 12 to 12 1/8
B 1000 n 1000/950 ps 6 1/2
B 500 g 1040 p 5 ¼ to 5 3/4
Soymeal
B 100 g 308/318 cs 3.00
S 200 h 305/300 ps 2.35
S 800 h 390 p 84.60 to 84.20 covered with a 100 delta vs f 301.8
Bean oil
B 500 z31st 4975/5025 cs vs s 4850 p even
B 300 g 52 c .355 to .370
S 100 h 45p/56c strangles .635
B 100 k 5050 c 2.405 vs 4986
Wheat
B 200 w1 510 p 2 1/4
B 100 g 500 p 3 ¾ vs 513 3/4
S 400 g 530 c 4 ¾ to 4 1/4
B 250 n 640 c 11
B 400 g 510 p vs 800 g 500 p ¼ db
S 500 g 520 c 7
B 100 w1 525 p 3 3/8
On a block
B 300 k 525 p 25 3/8 vs 527
Kc wheat
B 850 h 530 c 15 ¾ vs 528
S 100 h 500 p 4 5/8
sources
news: bloomberg
options data:globex
vol and changes: bloomberg
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