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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

Mexico’s president said the USMCA trade agreement is working well for both Mexico and the United States, stressing that it delivers mutual economic benefits, supports jobs on both sides of the border, and reinforces regional integration and supply-chain stability. Her comments push back against growing skepticism in U.S. political circles, arguing that the agreement remains important for competitiveness as it approaches its scheduled 2026 review.

China’s central bank signaled further targeted monetary easing after a deputy governor said it will cut interest rates on various structural policy tools by 25 basis points. The move lowers funding costs on facilities such as re-lending and rediscount programs that are aimed at priority areas including small businesses, technology, and strategic industries, rather than reducing benchmark policy rates. The decision highlights Beijing’s continued preference for precision easing to support growth and credit demand while limiting broader financial risks and pressure on the currency.

Canada’s Foreign Minister said that recent talks with China over Canadian canola export restrictions have been productive and that discussions will continue, signaling some progress in addressing barriers to Canadian canola in the Chinese market even as broader trade and diplomatic issues remain complex. 

U.S. economic data showed broadly stronger-than-expected demand alongside firm but moderating inflation signals. November retail sales beat expectations across the headline and core measures, with control-group sales matching forecasts and year-over-year growth holding above 3%, pointing to resilient consumer spending. The current account deficit narrowed more than expected in Q3, while business inventories rose modestly. Producer price data were mixed: November PPI was in line, but core and ex-trade measures—especially on a year-over-year basis—remained elevated, highlighting lingering services inflation even as some components cooled. Housing data surprised the upside, with December existing home sales jumping over 5% month over month, inventories tightening to just over three months’ supply, and prices edging higher year over year. Mortgage activity surged as rates dipped, with purchase and refinance applications posting sharp weekly gains, signaling renewed housing demand sensitivity to lower borrowing costs.

Recent Fed commentary highlights a clear split between caution and confidence, but with a shared commitment to keeping policy restrictive until inflation is decisively at target. Several officials stressed that inflation remains too high and the economy more resilient than expected, arguing against a passive or near-term easing stance as growth could reaccelerate and reapply price pressure. While the labor market is showing signs of cooling, it is widely viewed as bending rather than breaking, with no consensus that conditions are weak enough to justify urgent cuts. Others were more dovish, emphasizing that inflation is trending lower, regulation relief should ease price pressures, and modest rate cuts later this year would be appropriate if forecasts hold—some even calling for substantial easing. Across the board, officials reiterated the 2% inflation target, downplayed the risk of a renewed inflation surge, questioned how restrictive policy truly is, and underscored the importance of central bank independence, with housing supply constraints and uneven, “K-shaped” growth remaining key themes.

The Trump administration is reportedly close to a trade and investment deal with Taiwan, signaling progress in bilateral economic ties. Taiwan’s vice premier and trade representative are expected to arrive late Wednesday or early Thursday and are scheduled to meet with U.S. officials in the coming days, underscoring momentum toward a potential agreement.

Outside MarketsPriceChange % Change 
Dow                      49,399                43.000.09 
Crude                         59.26                (2.76)-4.45 
US Dollar                    98.9250                0.0180.02 
Gold                  4,615.34          (11.240)-0.24 
US 2/10 Swap                    61.9520             0.1340- 
VIX                         16.18                (0.57)- 
     
CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest   
 Previous VolumeChange in OIOptions Volume Change in Options OI 
Corn                     446,962             27,407                  101,824                                    16,474
SRW                    116,873                4,478                     12,487                                       3,681
HRW                      71,641                2,575                                -                                             754
Soybeans                    231,486                7,894                     40,489                                    14,058
Meal                    145,900                    (53)                     12,996                                       3,887
Oil                    177,138                 (331)                     26,735                                       2,539
Feeders                      21,790                1,051                       5,656                                       1,709
Live Cattle                      95,571                2,246                     18,856                                       5,731
Hogs                    101,283                9,542                     25,586                                       2,744
     

Overnight ag options activity 

Corn

B 300 h 460 c 7/8 

B 200 h 440/460 cs vs s 420 p 3 3/8 cr

B 200 n 520 c 3 1/2

B 300 z 450 c vs s z 400 p 19 7/8 db

B 200 h 450 c 1 1/4

 

Beans

B 500 h 1040 c 17 3/4

 

Open interest changes

Corn

Feb 420 put buy , july 460/550 call spread buy and march 470 call buy vs sale of march 420 puts was new.....march 435/440 call spread buy was rolling a long....march 450 call buy was closing

 

Beans

Nov 1300 call buy and feb 1050/1060 call spread buy vs sale of 1040 puts were new

 

Soymeal

March 300/315 call spread buy was new....march 300 put sale was closing 

 

Bean oil

May 52/57 call spread buy was new

 

Wheat

July 550 straddle buy and dec 500 put buys were new

 

Cvol

Ags 17.26% down .08%

Corn 15.01% down .64%

Beans 13.56% down .32%

Soymeal 18.35% up .23%

Bean oil 27.68% down .46%

Wheat 20.72% up .20%

Feeder cattle 18.95% up .12%

Live cattle 16.29% up .34%

Lean hogs 22.14% down .30%

Class 3 milk 15.41% down .15%

 

Corn

image-20260115044745-1

Beans

image-20260115044804-2

Soymeal

image-20260115044823-3

Bean oil

image-20260115044840-4

Wheat

image-20260115044902-5

Kc wheat 

image-20260115044923-6

Miax wheat 

image-20260115044956-7

Oats

image-20260115045016-8

Rough rice

image-20260115045033-9

Crush

image-20260115045057-10

Feeder cattle

image-20260115045114-11

Live cattle

image-20260115045131-12

Lean hogs

image-20260115045147-13

 

sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
charts bloomberg

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