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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

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first look 1/21
 

President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a special address today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, an appearance that is drawing close attention given ongoing trade, economic, and geopolitical tensions. Following his remarks, Trump is also expected to sit down for an interview with CNBC, where he is likely to discuss U.S. economic policy, trade negotiations, and relations with Europe and China. While exact timing could shift due to scheduling logistics, both the speech and the interview are expected to generate significant headlines and market reaction.

S&P Global’s early 2026 acreage outlook shows a clear rotation away from corn and toward soybeans. Corn planted area is projected at 95.0 million acres, down 3.8 million from last year, reflecting weaker margins and reduced incentives to maintain corn-heavy rotations. Soybean acreage is seen rising to 84.5 million acres, up 3.2 million YoY, as beans offer relatively better returns and greater flexibility. This shift increases downside risk for the 2026/27 corn balance sheet if yields or demand underperform, while the larger soybean area boosts supply potential but is partially offset by expanding domestic crush capacity and policy-driven soybean oil demand.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Howard Lutnick said that globalism has failed because it prioritized efficiency and low-cost production over economic resilience and domestic stability. He argued that globalization benefited large multinational companies and low-cost manufacturing regions, but left the middle of the economy weakened—eroding domestic industries, exposing supply chains to disruption, and increasing geopolitical risk. Lutnick’s remarks reflect a broader shift in thinking among policymakers and business leaders toward reshoring, strengthening national supply chains, and rebalancing trade policy to better support domestic workers and long-term economic security.

Japan’s finance minister urged calm after heavy bond selling pushed ultra-long Japanese government bond yields to their highest levels in decades. She emphasized the government’s commitment to fiscal sustainability, said authorities are closely monitoring markets and prepared to take steps to stabilize conditions if needed, and expressed confidence that Japan’s broader economic outlook remains solid despite the recent volatility.

Chinese President Xi said China wants to make domestic demand the primary driver of economic development, signaling a continued shift away from export-led growth. China’s vice finance minister said authorities will study extending consumer loan interest subsidies beyond 2026, underscoring ongoing policy support for household spending. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce said it is guiding the orderly arrangement of cross-border supply chains, aiming to stabilize trade flows while adapting to a more domestically focused growth model.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the NATO alliance has never been more secure and that the administration is on track to cut the federal deficit to 3% of GDP by the end of President Trump’s term. He said it is unlikely the Supreme Court will strike down the president’s signature economic policies, noted that rare earth supplies are beginning to flow as expected, and emphasized the need for the U.S. to reduce its dependence on China’s control of rare earths. Bessent added that China has followed through on its commitments and said the U.S. economy remains very strong, with growth likely accelerating.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the European trade deal is unlikely to change and emphasized that disagreements with allies do not make them adversaries, speaking to CNBC. He also argued that interest rates are hundreds of basis points too high and said that if the U.S. were to cut rates by 100 basis points or more, economic growth could accelerate to 6% or higher.

U.S. President Donald Trump will not travel to Paris to attend a proposed emergency G7 summit, according to a White House official. The meeting was discussed by French President Emmanuel Macron as a possible in-person gathering of G7 leaders in Paris this week, with reporting pointing to around Thursday, January 22, 2026, but it was never formally scheduled. Subsequent comments from French officials indicated that the idea was exploratory rather than confirmed, and no official emergency summit date has been set, even as Trump has already ruled out attending.

Outside MarketsPriceChange % Change
Dow                      48,581             (85.00)-0.17
Crude                         60.28                (0.08)-0.13
US Dollar                    98.4050             (0.034)-0.03
Gold                  4,863.93          100.5002.11
US 2/10 Swap                    70.2280             0.8670-
VIX                         20.28                  0.19-
    

 

Overnight options activity 

Corn

S 150 n 420 p 9 1/4

S 750 h 420 p 3 3/4

 

Beans

B 200 k 1050/1000 ps 12 1/2

S 100 k 1110/1160 cs 7

S 250 k 1050/1070 cs 10 5/8 

 

Wheat

B 100 h 520 c 9 1/2

B 250 h 530 c 6 1/8 

S 200 w1 500 p 3 1/8 

 

Kc wheat

B 100 h 535/555 cs vs s 510 p ½ to 1/8 cr

 

Open interest changes

Corn

March 450 call sale was closing...july 410p/470c strangle sales were new

 

Beans

March 1020/1000 ps sale was rolling a short....july 1060 put sale and march 1100 call sales were closing....may 1060 put sale, april 1070 put sale and march 1050 put buys were new

 

Soymeal

March 280 put buy and july 320 call sales were new....march 290 put sales were closing 

 

Bean oil

May 60/65 call spread buy was closing....may 57/67 call spread buy was new

 

Live cattle 

April 225 put sale was closing 

 

Cvol

Ags 17.18% down .29%

Corn 14.47% up .06%

Beans 13.70% up .37%

Soymeal 19.56% up .59%

Bean oil 28.13% up 1.05% (3 month high)

Wheat 21.02% down .30%

Feeder cattle 19.01% down 1.50%

Live cattle 15.91% down 1.15%

Lean hogs 19.92% down .77% (1 month low)

Class 3 milk 16.36% up .58%

 

Corn

image-20260121060700-13

Beans

image-20260121060643-12

Soymeal

image-20260121060628-11

Bean oil

image-20260121060607-10

 

Wheat

image-20260121060548-9

 

Kc wheat

image-20260121060522-8

 

Miax wheat

image-20260121060504-7

 

Oats 

image-20260121060435-6

 

Rough rice

image-20260121060411-5

 

Crush

image-20260121060357-4

Feeder cattle

image-20260121060340-3

Live cattle

image-20260121060323-2

Lean hogs

image-20260121060304-1

sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
charts bloomberg

 

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