ag options recap
Tomorrow is LTD for Feb grain options.
European Union lawmakers plan to resume and vote on ratifying the EU–U.S. trade deal after President Donald Trump walked back his latest threat to impose tariffs on European allies. The ratification process had been suspended due to what EU officials described as Trump’s “coercive” tariff threats but was restarted after he said the levies would not go into effect. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said Trump’s reversal was sufficient to justify moving forward, with a preliminary vote possible in the coming days. Parliamentary approval is the final EU step needed for the agreement to enter into force. The deal, reached last July and partially implemented, has been controversial in Europe because it removes nearly all EU tariffs on U.S. products while leaving a 15% duty on most EU exports to the U.S. and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum.
E15 was left out of the latest government funding bills, but Senator Chuck Grassley said that does not mean the issue is dead. Grassley indicated there is still strong bipartisan interest in expanding year-round E15 sales, and suggested legislative action is likely in February. He emphasized that the policy remains a priority for corn-state lawmakers and ethanol supporters, but timing and broader budget negotiations prevented it from being included in this round. The delay keeps uncertainty in place for ethanol producers and corn demand in the near term, though expectations remain that Congress will revisit the issue soon.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China is not required to buy additional U.S. soybeans beyond what it has already committed to under the existing agreement, according to Politico. He noted that China recently completed its full soybean purchase allocation, signaling that Beijing has followed through on its commitments so far. While the U.S. would welcome further purchases as a goodwill gesture, Bessent emphasized they are not necessary, framing the current U.S.–China trade relationship as more stable and less confrontational than during earlier periods of tariff escalation.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S.–China relationship has reached a “very good equilibrium,” reducing the risk that disagreements turn into a full-scale economic conflict like last year. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Bessent said President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could meet as many as four times in 2026, creating opportunities for quick de-escalation if tensions arise. He said China has followed through on commitments from the Trump–Xi deal, including completing its most recent soybean purchase allocation, and while the U.S. will continue to hold China accountable, additional purchases would be welcomed but are not required. Bessent described the current tone as a marked improvement from the earlier phase of Trump’s term that saw steep tariffs and retaliation, and outlined several possible meeting opportunities this year, including Trump’s visit to Beijing in April, a potential summer meeting in Washington or Mar-a-Lago, the G20 in Miami, and possibly the APEC meeting in Shenzhen, underscoring an effort by both sides to maintain stability and avoid disruptions.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent efforts to deepen trade ties with China as “political noise,” warning that Canada’s China outreach could complicate negotiations over a revamped USMCA later this year. Speaking at Davos, Lutnick questioned whether China would meaningfully open its economy to Canadian exports and cautioned that Ottawa’s maneuvering risks bleeding into North American trade talks. He was responding to Carney’s recent deal with China’s leadership that could reduce tariffs on Canadian canola in exchange for increased Chinese electric vehicle and auto investment. Meanwhile, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico remains committed to preserving the USMCA despite growing tensions between Canada and the United States.
November’s U.S. PCE report showed inflation continuing to cool without breaking demand. Headline PCE rose 0.2% month over month and 2.8% year over year, while core PCE increased a modest 0.16% on the month, keeping inflation near the Fed’s comfort zone. Core services inflation excluding housing rose 0.2%, signaling some remaining stickiness, but there was no upside surprise. Real personal spending grew a solid 0.3%, indicating consumers remain resilient, while personal income rose 0.3%, slightly below expectations. Overall, the data reinforce a “soft-landing” narrative—inflation is easing gradually, consumption remains intact, and the Fed has room to stay patient rather than rush toward rate cuts.
The U.S. economy grew at a 4.4% annualized pace in the third quarter of 2025, showing little sign of slowing, according to updated GDP data. Growth was driven primarily by strong consumer spending and solid business investment. Consumer spending was revised higher to a 3.5% pace, while investment in equipment and software also remained robust, reflecting continued demand for technology. Despite headwinds from tariffs and lingering inflation pressures, the economy has shown notable resilience. Many analysts now expect another year of above-average growth, putting the U.S. on track for a fifth consecutive year of stronger-than-normal economic expansion.
Corn
S 150 sd k 440/410 ps 4 5/8
B 1000 h 430/440 cs 2 1/4
B 200 h 455 c 2 7/8
S 500 n 410p/470c strangles 15 1/8
B 1000 h 425 c 5
B 200 sd u 500 c 9 1/2
B 1000 n 500 c 4 1/4
S 300 h 410 p 2
B 2500 k 400 p 2 5/8
B 2000 h 425/435/445 call flies 1 3/4
S 200 z 420 p 13
S 500 j 430 p 8 7/8 vs 431
S 200 n 440 p 19 ¾ vs 437 3/4
S 200 h 425 straddles 12 7/8 vs 423
Beans
S 400 n 1080 c 42
S 400 j 1100 c 11 1/4
B 250 x 1100 c 44 7/8 vs 1077 3/4
B 800 k 1080 p 27 ¾ vs 1079 1/2
B 1200 h 1040/1020 ps 3 1/2
S 1000 h 10880 c 8 1/4
B 400 q 1100 c vs s j 1100 c 26 ¼ db
B 500 h 1070 c 13 1/4
B 200 x 1100 c 44 1/2
B 1250 g 1060 c 2 ¼ to 2 1/2
S 500 k 1140 c 8 ½ to 8 1/4
B 1000 h 1040 p 5 ½ to 5 5/8
S 500 k 1060 p vs b h 1060 p 6 7/8 cr
S 300 k 1070 c 31
B 600 k 1060 p vs s 1200 h 1040 p 8 3/8 db
S 1000 k 1080 p vs 1079 ¼ against b 1000 h 1070 p vs 1068 collecting 11 3/4
B 750 j 1150 c 4 3/8
S 750 n 1200 c 10 1/8
S 100 k27 1110 c 51 vs 1095 1/4
B 750 h 1030 p 3 3/8 to 3 1/2
B 100 k 1100 c 20
S 100 n 1150/1100 ps 32 1/2
S 1000 j 1100 c 15
B 500 j 1060/1080 cs 11 1/8
B 500 h 1040 p 5 1/8
B 1500 h 1100 c 10 7/8 to 11
B 100 h 1080/1100 cs vs s 1050 p 2 cr
S 500 h 1100 c 11
Soymeal
B 2000 h 300/315 cs paying 2.70 to 2.80 vs 295.0
B 2000 h 290 p 3.05 vs 296.0
B 500 w5 300/315 cs 1.40
S 800 g 293 c vs b 1600 g 298 c 1.80 cr
S 200 h 295 staddles 11.70
B 250 h 280 p .75
B 1000 h 320 c 1.00
S 800 h 300 c 4.35 to 4.00
B 750 h 295 c 5.70 to 6.95
On a block
B 250 n 340 c vs s k 340 c 2.30 db
B 250 k 320/340 cs 2.20
Bean oil
B 500 h 59/61 cs .145
S 200 h 52/5750 cs 1.710 vs 5369
B 150 n 90 c .145
B 500 h 52/49 ps .570 vs 54.00
S 100 h 57 c .575
S 100 k 58 c 1.800
B 1000 h 52 p .775 to .800 vs 5380
B 1200 h 55 c 1.115 to 1.130
On a block
S 150 k 53 p 2.275 vs 5438
Wheat
S 400 h 535 c 5 ½ to 5 3/8
B 1000 h 540 c 4 3/8 to 5 1/8
B 100 k 550/600 cs vs s h 420 c ½ cr
S 450 g 520 c 1 3/8
B 500 g 520 c 1 ½ to 1 5/8
B 1000 h 500 p 4 ½ to 5
S 100 n 500 p 15 1/2
B 500 n 620 c 11 5/8 vs 533 3/4
Kc wheat
B 750 n 520p/560c strangles 50 vs 545 1/2
S 250 h 540 c 5 ¾ vs 522 3/4
Crush
S 25 h 160 c 16
Ethanol
S 50 h 165 c 4
| Corn | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| C G6 | 424.00 | 2.25 | 425 | 16.3 | 0.00 | 3.25 | 4.35 | 6.36 | 23.81 | 1 |
| C H6 | 424.00 | 2.25 | 425 | 13.2 | 0.00 | 3.25 | 3.53 | 6.36 | 23.81 | 29 |
| C J6 | 432.25 | 2.50 | 430 | 13.3 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 3.62 | 6.12 | 22.48 | 64 |
| C K6 | 432.25 | 2.50 | 430 | 14.8 | 0.20 | 3.00 | 4.03 | 6.12 | 22.48 | 92 |
| C N6 | 438.50 | 2.25 | 440 | 16.6 | 0.10 | 2.75 | 4.59 | 5.90 | 21.34 | 155 |
| C U6 | 437.75 | 1.75 | 440 | 18.8 | 0.10 | 2.75 | 5.18 | 4.37 | 15.83 |
211
|
| Beans | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| S G6 | 1064.00 | -0.50 | 1060 | 15.3 | 0.30 | 12.00 | 10.25 | 9.39 | 14.01 | 1 |
| S H6 | 1064.00 | -0.50 | 1060 | 12.3 | -0.60 | 12.00 | 8.24 | 9.39 | 14.01 | 29 |
| S J6 | 1076.25 | 1.25 | 1080 | 12.2 | -0.40 | 10.50 | 8.27 | 9.04 | 13.33 | 64 |
| S K6 | 1076.25 | 1.25 | 1080 | 12.8 | -0.20 | 10.50 | 8.68 | 9.04 | 13.33 | 92 |
| S N6 | 1089.00 | 1.75 | 1090 | 13.7 | -0.10 | 9.50 | 9.40 | 8.55 | 12.46 | 155 |
| HRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| KWG6 | 525.75 | 6.00 | 525 | 28.5 | 6.70 | 7.50 | 9.44 | 5.70 | 17.20 | 1 |
| KWH6 | 525.75 | 6.00 | 525 | 20.3 | 0.50 | 7.50 | 6.72 | 5.70 | 17.20 | 29 |
| KWJ6 | 536.00 | 5.25 | 535 | 22.1 | 0.20 | 6.50 | 7.46 | 5.50 | 16.30 | 64 |
| KWK6 | 536.00 | 5.25 | 535 | 23.1 | 0.20 | 6.50 | 7.80 | 5.50 | 16.30 | 92 |
| KWN6 | 548.25 | 5.00 | 550 | 24.7 | 0.00 | 6.25 | 8.53 | 5.32 | 15.41 | 155 |
| SRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| W G6 | 515.50 | 7.75 | 515 | 25.9 | 5.20 | 9.25 | 8.41 | 4.89 | 15.05 | 1 |
| W H6 | 515.50 | 7.75 | 515 | 20.2 | 0.60 | 9.25 | 6.56 | 4.89 | 15.05 | 29 |
| W J6 | 526.50 | 7.50 | 525 | 21.8 | 0.30 | 8.75 | 7.23 | 4.69 | 14.15 | 64 |
| W K6 | 526.50 | 7.50 | 525 | 22.7 | 0.00 | 8.75 | 7.53 | 4.69 | 14.15 | 92 |
| W N6 | 539.00 | 7.50 | 540 | 24.7 | 0.00 | 8.75 | 8.39 | 4.50 | 13.26 | 155 |
| Bean Oil | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| BOG6 | 53.78 | -0.23 | 54 | 28.4 | 1.50 | 0.76 | 0.96 | 0.75 | 22.01 | 1 |
| BOH6 | 53.78 | -0.23 | 54 | 26.0 | -1.20 | 0.76 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 22.01 | 29 |
| BOK6 | 54.33 | -0.21 | 54.5 | 28.3 | -0.40 | 0.74 | 0.97 | 0.73 | 21.37 | 92 |
| BON6 | 54.65 | -0.19 | 54.5 | 27.0 | -0.30 | 0.72 | 0.93 | 0.71 | 20.48 | 155 |
| Meal | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| SMG6 | 296.20 | 4.80 | 295 | 23.1 | 4.60 | 6.20 | 4.31 | 3.45 | 18.48 | 1 |
| SMH6 | 296.20 | 4.80 | 295 | 18.2 | 1.70 | 6.20 | 3.40 | 3.45 | 18.48 | 29 |
| SMK6 | 299.30 | 4.10 | 300 | 17.2 | 1.00 | 5.80 | 3.24 | 3.30 | 17.48 | 92 |
| SMN6 | 303.90 | 3.80 | 305 | 17.4 | 0.60 | 5.50 | 3.33 | 3.10 | 16.20 | 155 |
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
options charts bloomberg
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