The USDA WASDE report is today, setting up a key risk event for the grain markets as traders watch for any changes to U.S. and global balance sheets, demand assumptions, and ending stocks amid heavy index roll activity and elevated volatility.
Today marks day 3 of 5 of the Goldman roll, keeping index-related flow active in the market and maintaining elevated volume and mechanical pressure as positions continue to shift from the nearby contract into deferred months.
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to hold a summit in the first week of April, according to POLITICO. The meeting would mark their first formal engagement of the year and could be the opening of a broader diplomatic schedule, with as many as four leader-level
meetings planned in 2026 as Washington and Beijing look to reestablish regular high-level dialogue amid ongoing trade, economic, and geopolitical tensions.
ECB officials struck a broadly steady and cautious tone, signaling that policy is appropriately set and changes would require a clear and sustained shift in the outlook. Lagarde said inflation is expected to stabilize at the 2% target despite a volatile global environment, while reaffirming a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Other policymakers echoed that inflation risks are roughly balanced, expectations remain anchored, and the recent softness in inflation is viewed as temporary, with little appetite to react to short-term moves. Overall, the ECB sees rates near neutral, the baseline holding for now, and no urgency to adjust policy absent a material change in conditions.
Chinese President Xi urged greater domestic technology self-reliance and innovation, according to Xinhua, reinforcing Beijing’s push to reduce dependence on foreign supply chains. Separately, China’s Commerce Ministry met with auto industry executives and said it will optimize the vehicle trade-in program while boosting car sales through a mix of new and existing policy support measures.
Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi said she has received a strong mandate for her policies following the election and confirmed a swift restart of the parliamentary session. She said discussions on a refundable tax credit will begin and emphasized that the government will not use additional debt to fund a suspension of the food sales tax. Takaichi also said the government will submit a bill in the next parliament to establish a national information framework and a committee on foreign investment, and added that she is open to pursuing an expansion of the governing coalition with the DPP if they are willing.
Fed official Miran, a voter and policy dove, said recent tax law changes should be a net positive for the economy and that monetary policy needs to stay attuned to the business cycle. He added that Federal Reserve independence leads to better policy outcomes, while noting that no central bank is ever fully independent and the Fed should avoid straying into non-monetary policy issues. Miran also said there are reasons to believe fiscal dominance will not become a major problem and that he is not concerned tariffs will impair the value of the US dollar.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said no critical minerals deal has been signed with the US, but confirmed that both sides have agreed to begin talks toward a potential agreement.
US House Democrats may move to overturn tariffs on Canada and could force a vote as early as Wednesday, according to Punchbowl. The effort is pure political theater and a waste of time, with no realistic path to changing tariff policy and little impact beyond posturing.
The White House said the US and Bangladesh have reached an agreement on reciprocal trade under which the US will reduce reciprocal tariffs to 19% on goods originating from Bangladesh, while also committing to establish a mechanism that would allow certain Bangladeshi textile and apparel products to enter the US at a zero reciprocal tariff rate. Bangladesh’s chief adviser separately confirmed that the US has committed to creating this mechanism, underscoring the focus on preferential treatment for key textile and apparel exports within the broader trade framework.
President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric with Canada, claiming Ottawa is building a “massive” Ontario–Michigan bridge that Canada will own outright and construct with little to no U.S. content. He tied the project directly to long-standing grievances over Canada’s dairy tariffs, arguing they have harmed U.S. farmers, and threatened to block the bridge’s opening unless the U.S. is “fully compensated.” Trump called for immediate negotiations and suggested the United States should own at least half of the asset, asserting that traffic and revenue generated by access to the U.S. market would be “astronomical.” The post frames infrastructure ownership, dairy trade barriers, and tariffs as a single leverage package, signaling a hardline approach that blends trade disputes with cross-border infrastructure approval.
Alphabet issued a rare 100-year bond denominated in British pounds rather than U.S. dollars. The foreign-currency structure allowed the company to tap deep long-duration demand from overseas investors and diversify its funding base. The deal reflects strong investor confidence in Alphabet’s balance sheet and its ability to access sovereign-style, ultra-long financing.
| Outside Markets | Price | Change | % Change | | |
| Dow | 50,225 | 6.00 | 0.01 | | |
| Crude | 64.47 | 0.11 | 0.17 | | |
| US Dollar | 96.7600 | 0.072 | 0.07 | | |
| Gold | 5,046.85 | (10.950) | -0.22 | | |
| US 2/10 Swap | 69.9530 | (1.3290) | - | | |
| VIX | 17.36 | - | - | | |
| | | | | | |
| CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest | | | | |
| | Previous Volume | Change in OI | Options Volume | Change in Options OI | |
| Corn | 385,296 | 5,170 | 59,386 | 3,263 | |
| SRW | 190,439 | (5,866) | 10,482 | 2,580 | |
| HRW | 133,370 | (4,119) | - | 345 | |
| Soybeans | 432,855 | 5,376 | 89,856 | 18,875 | |
| Meal | 228,602 | (7,029) | 15,943 | 2,115 | |
| Oil | 305,914 | (4,852) | 40,853 | (5,638) | |
| Feeders | 27,365 | (1,297) | 4,009 | 1,707 | |
| Live Cattle | 57,841 | (1,169) | 12,192 | 5,196 | |
| Hogs | 62,296 | (2,188) | 10,084 | 2,723 | |
| | | | | | |
Overnight ag options activity
Corn
B 100 z 470/570 cs vs s 415 p 7 7/8 db
B 100 w1 475 c 1/2
Beans
S 1300 h 1110 p 11 ¾ to 11
B 300 n 1270 c vs s x 980 p paying even
B 400 h 1080 p 1 ¾
Bean oil
B 100 j 52p/62c strangles 1.480
Open interest changes
Corn
May 420 put buy, may 435 straddle sale, may 440 straddle buy, july 470 call sale and may 420p/460c strangle sales were new.....march 440 call buy and march 425 calls sales were closing
Beans
March 1080 put buy, july 1160 call buy, july 1250/1350 call spread buy, july 1260 call sales and may 1180 call sales were new....march 1070 put buys were closing
Bean oil
May 65 call buy, may 55/60 call spread sale, may 59 call sale and may 56 call sales were closing
Wheat
May 500 put sale and w2 500 put sales were new
Cvol
Ags 19.01% down .74%
Corn 15.93% down .35%
Beans 16.24% down 2.48%
Soymeal 26.45% down 2.99%
Bean oil 31.19% up .69%
Wheat 22.83% down 1.67%
Feeder cattle 19.70% up .29%
Live cattle 18.76% up .65%
Lean hogs 19.63% down .04%
Class 3 milk 21.59% down 1.82%
corn
beans
soymeal
bean oil
wheat
kc wheat
miax wheat
oats
rough rice
crush
feeder cattle
live cattle
lean hogs
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
charts bloomberg
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
