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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

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China signaling further policy refinement to regulate live hog capacity reflects a continued effort by Beijing to smooth out the boom-bust cycle in pork production, likely through tighter controls on herd expansion and incentives to align supply with demand. For markets, that implies a more managed and potentially less volatile Chinese pork sector, which can dampen extreme swings in feed demand but also limit upside import surges during rebuild phases. For the EU, this matters because a more stable Chinese hog sector reduces the likelihood of large, opportunistic import programs, keeping European pork exports more dependent on steady baseline demand rather than cyclical spikes tied to Chinese herd contractions.

U.S. trade officials weighing tighter auto import rules under United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, particularly raising the domestic content threshold for parts, signals a push to onshore more manufacturing but also risks disrupting North American supply chains. For markets, the immediate read is higher production costs and potential friction with Mexico and Canada if compliance becomes more difficult. In an ag context, that matters because autos are a core pillar of USMCA trade balance; if tensions escalate, it increases the risk of spillover into agriculture through retaliatory measures or tougher negotiations elsewhere. Net effect: modestly supportive for U.S. industrial policy, but adds another layer of uncertainty to broader North American trade flows that agriculture relies on.

President Donald Trump signaling a “special” and potentially historic meeting with Xi Jinping is best read as a tone shift toward engagement, but not yet substance. The language suggests both sides are preparing markets for dialogue and possible incremental agreements rather than a sweeping deal. For ag, that keeps China firmly in play as a swing demand factor, especially for soybeans, but the risk remains that outcomes lean more symbolic than structural. Net effect: it injects optionality back into export expectations and sentiment, but until there are concrete commitments, the market will treat it as headline support rather than a fundamental shift.

China is warning that a potentially strong El Niño developing this year could intensify an already fragile global energy situation, according to reporting from the South China Morning Post. The concern is that hotter and drier conditions across key regions would boost electricity demand for cooling while simultaneously disrupting hydropower generation, particularly in parts of Asia that rely heavily on it. That combination forces a greater shift toward fossil fuels like coal and natural gas at a time when supply chains are already strained, raising the risk of higher energy prices and tighter availability. The broader implication is a weather-driven demand shock layered on top of geopolitical and supply constraints, amplifying volatility across global energy and, by extension, agricultural input markets.

Comments from Christopher Waller and Mary Daly suggest the Fed is increasingly focused on managing a potential energy-driven stagflation scenario, where inflation rises due to war-related oil shocks while growth risks soften. Waller signaled confidence in keeping inflation expectations anchored but indicated a willingness to hold rates steady rather than tighten if inflation comes with labor market weakness, while Daly emphasized that the economic outlook hinges heavily on how long energy prices remain elevated and how persistent the conflict becomes. The overall takeaway is a more cautious, patient Fed that is less likely to react aggressively to short-term inflation spikes, keeping policy steady unless growth materially deteriorates.

 

European Central Bank officials are signaling patience, acknowledging that while markets pricing two rate hikes is reasonable, uncertainty around the Iran conflict and limited inflation spillovers argue against acting too quickly. Policymakers are keeping optionality open, with no clear commitment that the next move will be a hike. Meanwhile, Moody’s downgrade of Belgium highlights underlying fiscal risks, reinforcing the ECB’s cautious, wait-and-see approach.

 

image-20260420061007-1

 

 

Overnight options activity 

Corn

B 500 k 455 c 1 ½ to 1 3/4

S 200 k 445 c 7 ¼ to 7

B 100 n 460/440 ps 9 5/8 

S 100 u 440 p 15 1/2

B 500 n 480 c 10 to 10 3/8

 

Beans

B 300 k 1200 c ¾ to 7/8 

B 200 x 1400 c 7 7/8 

S 100 x 1100 p 26 1/2

B 500 n 1150 p 14 7/8 to 15 1/8

 

Soymeal

B 300 n 350 c 4.70

B 250 k 330 p vs s 500 k 325 p even to .10 db

B 200 n 355 c 3.80

 

Wheat

B 100 k 610/630 cs 3 1/8 

B 800 k 600/580 ps 5/8 

 

Kc wheat

B 1500 m 625/650 cs 6 1/2

B 100 n 600/590 ps 2 1/2

 

Open interest changes

Corn 

July 420 put buy, july 440 put buy, dec 600 call buy, sept 465 call buy and dec 470 put sales were closing....june 470/500 call spread buy, dec 460 put buy and short july 460p/500c strangle buys were new....dec 475/490 call spread sale was rolling a short.

 

Beans

May 1200 call buy, june 1260 call buy and june 1150 put sales were closing...july 1250 call sale was closing

 

Soymeal

July 300 put buy was closing....july 350/370 call spread buy was new....may 335/345 call spread buy was rolling a long.

 

Bean oil

July 65/63 put spread buy, may 73 call sale, may 63 put buy and july 61/66 call spread sales were closing

 

Kc wheat

May 650/700 call spread buy and may 620 put buys were new

 

Lean hogs

July 110 call buy and june 105 call buys were new

 

Live cattle june 270 call buy was new

 

Cvol

Ags 19.60% down .16%

Corn 20.42% down .77%

Beans 14.90% up .09%

Soymeal 23.72% down .67%

Bean oil 29.12% up .89%

Wheat 30.21% down 3.01%

Feeder cattle 17.95% up .82%

Live cattle 17.70% up .43%

Lean hogs 19.72% down .29%

Class 3 milk 19.92% down .44%

 

Corn

image-20260420061007-2

Beans

image-20260420061007-3

Soymeal

image-20260420061007-4

Bean oil

image-20260420061007-5

Wheat

image-20260420061007-6

Kc wheat

image-20260420061007-7

Miax wheat 

image-20260420061007-8

Oats

image-20260420061007-9

Rough rice

image-20260420061007-10

Feeder cattle

image-20260420061007-11

Live cattle

image-20260420061007-12

Lean hogs

image-20260420061007-13

 

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