Corn spreads are sending a softer cash/old-crop signal, with both U/Z and Z/H making new contract lows. That points to the market continuing to price comfortable forward supply, weak nearby ownership incentives, and limited urgency from commercial users. The new lows are especially notable because they come right ahead of the Rogers index roll, which starts tomorrow and can add mechanical pressure as long-only index exposure rolls out of the nearby contract and into deferred months.
Trade meetings with Mexico begin today and keep USMCA, tariff, and market-access issues directly in focus. For agriculture, the talks matter because Mexico remains the largest and most reliable buyer of U.S. corn and a major customer for soymeal, DDGS, pork, beef, dairy, and other food products. A constructive tone could help reduce uncertainty around tariffs, border logistics, biotechnology approvals, SPS rules, and broader market access, while any deterioration would be a clear risk for grain and livestock markets given how dependent U.S. agriculture is on uninterrupted Mexican demand.
The IRS and Treasury’s May 28 public hearing on the proposed Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit regulations is expected to be more of a clarification step than a major policy reset. The hearing represents the final formal opportunity for stakeholder input before final rules are issued later this year, following the February proposed regulations and April comment deadline. For markets, the key areas to watch are technical but important: soybean crushing and purification definitions, GREET model updates, treatment of indirect land-use change, feedstock verification, EAC matching, and related-party sales rules. The tone is expected to be constructive and largely non-controversial, with no major market-moving surprises anticipated. As a result, the current framework remains broadly supportive for renewable diesel, SAF, soybean oil demand, and strong crush margins, while the trade waits for final rule clarity later in the year.
China’s comments keep the EU-China trade friction theme active, with Beijing pushing back against what it views as protectionist restrictions from Europe. The market read-through is that trade tensions are broadening beyond the U.S.-China lane and could affect industrial goods, autos/EVs, batteries, critical minerals, and potentially ag/food flows if retaliation expands. For agriculture, the immediate impact is limited, but the risk is a more fragmented global trade environment where China leans harder into alternative suppliers, Europe tightens market-access rules, and policy uncertainty weighs on broader commodity sentiment.
The Fed headlines add a hawkish macro overlay at the same time regulators appear to be easing bank supervisory pressure. Kashkari’s comment that the Fed could consider “a series” of rate hikes if Middle East turmoil feeds through to inflation reinforces the market risk that an energy shock could delay cuts or even reopen the tightening discussion, especially if crude, refined products, and inflation expectations move higher. Separately, Reuters’ report that banks are pressing the Fed to formalize a narrower supervisory approach points to a more durable regulatory pullback, with the Fed reportedly shifting some issues from binding “matters requiring attention” to less formal “observations” and working on updated examiner guidance. The policy mix is potentially tighter on rates if inflation reaccelerates, but lighter on bank oversight, which could be supportive for financials while still leaving broader risk assets vulnerable to energy-driven inflation and higher-for-longer rate concerns
BMO’s outlook is a soft-landing but still-sticky inflation call: U.S. real GDP growth of 2.1% in 2026 suggests the economy remains resilient rather than recessionary, but inflation averaging above 3% keeps the Fed from moving quickly. The key market read-through is that rate cuts are still possible later in the year, but only if inflation momentum cools enough to give policymakers cover. For commodities and agriculture, this is a mixed backdrop: steady growth supports demand and risk appetite, while sticky inflation and delayed Fed easing can keep the dollar and financing costs firmer, limiting upside unless supply/weather or trade headlines provide a stronger catalyst.
The U.S. data leaned modestly constructive overall. Consumer confidence came in slightly better than expected at 93.1 versus 92.0, suggesting household sentiment remains fragile but not deteriorating further. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index also improved to 0.14 from -0.20, pointing to activity running a bit above trend in April. Housing was mixed: Case-Shiller home prices rose a strong 1.0% month-over-month in March, but the year-over-year gain slowed to 0.8% and missed expectations, while the FHFA House Price Index was steady at 0.1% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. Net-net, the data do not scream recession, but they also do not show a major acceleration. For markets, this keeps the Fed in a difficult spot: growth is holding up enough to limit urgency for cuts, while housing inflation and consumer resilience could keep policymakers cautious.
Overnight option activity
Corn
B 100 z 480/510 cs vs s 450 p 5 3/8 cr
S 100 q 485 c 12
S 500 u 500/530/550 call flies 2 7/8
S 250 u 500/530/560 call flies 2 1/8
B 1000 sd n 490/510 cs 4 7/8 vs 479 1/2
B 1000 sd n 490/510 cs 5 1/8
Beans
S 1000 u 1170 p 39 1/2
S 500 q 1190 p 35 1/2
B 200 x 1150 p 33
B 300 n 1190 c 18 ¼ vs 1185
S 500 n 1190 p 23 ½
Bean oil
B 100 n 80/85 cs .375
B 500 n 78 c .875
Wheat
B 100 q 570 p 4 1/2
Kc wheat
B 100 u 1100 c 1 5/8
Open interest changes
Corn
Sept 500/550 call spread buy, july 545 call buy, july 460/470 call spread buy, short july 500/540 call spread buy and sept 510 call sales were new.....july 430 put buy, july 480 call buy and short dated aug 520 call sales were closing
Beans
July 1210 call buy, july 1220 call buy, july 1190 put sale and aug 1240 call sales are new. July 1140 put buy, nov 1500 call buy, short july 1190 call sale, nov 1300 call buy, aug 1230 call sale, aug 1300 call buy and july 1250 call sales were closing.
Bean oil
July 78 call sale and sept 80/90 call spread buys were closing
Wheat
July 640/700 call spread buy was closing
Cvol
Ags 21.12% down .38%
Corn 24.87% down .52%
Beans 16.26% down .04%
Soymeal 21.55% down .34%
Bean oil 25.35% down .42%
Wheat 32.48% down 1.42%
Feeder cattle 18.46% down .24%
Live cattle 16.82% down .72%
Lean hogs 22.69% up .48%
Class 3 milk 19.85% up .78%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Cotton
Canola
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
