Today is day 3 of 5 for the Goldman roll.
Soybean spreads are quietly firming even as flat price remains under pressure. The strength is most noticeable across the late-summer/new-crop and post-harvest slots, with Sep/Nov, Nov/Jan, and Jan/Mar pushing to new highs. That tells us the market is reducing carry and placing more value on nearby ownership versus deferred months. In simple terms, commercials are not being paid much to store beans forward, which points to a firmer underlying cash/ownership tone than the outright futures chart may suggest. This is not yet a runaway bullish structure, but it is a constructive internal signal: the board may look heavy, while the spread market is showing less comfort with the soybean balance sheet.
Board cattle feeding margins moved to new contract highs, with deferred structures showing very strong economics at roughly $440–$480 per head. The strength reflects live cattle values continuing to outpace feeder cattle and feed costs, keeping board margins attractive for hedged placements. While this is supportive for feedlot profitability on paper, it also means the deferred cattle curve is already pricing in a very favorable margin environment.
Campbell’s results offered another signal that consumers remain under pressure and are continuing to shift more spending back toward the home. The company reported softer sales in both meals and beverages and snacks, while margins remained pressured by inflation and tariff-related costs. The more important takeaway came from management’s commentary, with CEO Mick Beekhuizen saying the at-home cooking trend remains resilient and is expected to continue through the back half of the year. That lines up with broader concerns across the restaurant sector, where analysts expect spending to remain challenged as households look for cheaper meal options. For markets, the read-through is that consumers are still trading down, food inflation remains a margin headwind, and restaurant demand could stay soft if more households continue replacing dining out with meals at home.
China’s May trade data came in stronger than expected across the board, with the USD trade surplus widening to $105.4B versus expectations of $91.5B and the prior month’s $84.8B. Exports rose 19.4% year-over-year, well above expectations, while imports increased 27.4%, also ahead of forecasts. The same strength showed up in yuan terms, with the surplus expanding to 724.0B CNY. The takeaway is that China’s external trade engine remains firm despite ongoing tariff and supply-chain tensions, with export demand still resilient and imports pointing to stronger internal demand or front-loading of raw materials and components. For markets, this supports the idea that China’s economy is not rolling over, but it also keeps trade friction risk elevated as a larger surplus may draw more scrutiny from Washington and other trading partners.
U.S.–China tensions continue to broaden beyond tariffs and into national security and supply-chain security. The Pentagon reportedly added several major Chinese companies, including Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, Tencent, Nio and Cosco, to its list of Chinese military-linked companies, accusing them of aiding China’s military-industrial base. While the designation does not automatically mean sanctions, it raises reputational risk and keeps the door open for future restrictions around investment, procurement or technology access. At the same time, Washington is reportedly pressing China to resume rare earth exports to Japan, highlighting concern that any disruption in critical minerals could impact autos, semiconductors, batteries, defense and other high-tech supply chains. The broader takeaway is that the U.S.–China dispute is increasingly moving from trade balances into strategic industries, which keeps geopolitical risk elevated across equities, industrial supply chains and critical minerals.
Iran headlines remain centered on diplomacy versus escalation. President Trump is signaling that a deal with Iran could be close, saying the U.S. may have a clearer read within days and that a broader “victory” could be declared within two weeks. The market takeaway is that Washington appears to be using maximum pressure — including the continued naval blockade and limits on frozen funds — to force nuclear concessions, while also trying to keep Israel from expanding the conflict before talks play out. Reports from Axios, Reuters, and Al Jazeera suggest Trump has warned Netanyahu that Israel could be left to act alone if it turns the situation into a broader war, while VP Vance reinforced that the U.S. preference is a verifiable deal but that military options remain on the table if diplomacy fails. For energy markets, the headline risk cuts both ways: any confirmed deal or reopening of trade flows would be bearish crude, but failed talks, Israeli escalation, or a wider Iran/Hezbollah response would quickly put geopolitical premium back into oil.
Overnight options activity
Corn
B 200 h 700 c 2 1/4
B 100 h 510/480 ps 21 5/8
B 200 h 525/485 ps 22 1/8
B 1000 h 500 c 16 ½ to 17 1/8
B 200 z 560 c 4 7/8
Beans
B 600 n 1200 c 5/8
Soymeal
B 100 n 290 p vs s n 340 c .85 db
B 150 n 295 p 2.15 to 2.25
Bean oil
B 100 u 73/68 ps vs s 77 c .660 db
S 500 n 75 p 2.020
Wheat
B 100 n 640 c 1 3/4
B 100 n 660 c 7/8
B 100 u 600/550 ps 22
S 500 n 700 c 1/4
Open interest changes
Corn
Short july 480 put buy, short july 500 put buy and july 500 call sales were closing...sept 400 put buy was new...aug 425/450 call spread buy was rolling a long.
Beans
Aug 1100 put sale, sept 1060 put buy vs sale of 1230 calls and nov 1280/1380 call spread buys were new.
Soymeal
July 325 call sale was closing...dec 300 put buy was new
Bean oil
Dec 75 call buy, sept 6450 put sale, dec 55 put buy and dec 77/87 call spread buys were new.
Wheat
Sept 700/750/800 call fly buy was new
Kc wheat
July 650/750 call spread buy was rolling a long
Lean hogs
July 96/100 call spread sale was closing
Cvol
Ags 21.79% up .44%
Corn 27.50% up .19%
Beans 17.01% up .32%
Soymeal 21.68% up 1.14%
Bean oil 27.88% up .45%
Wheat 28.33% up 1.61%
Feeder cattle 17.38% down .10%
Live cattle 17.33% up .57%
Lean hogs 24.97% up 1.30% (6 month high)
Class 3 milk 19.51% up .33%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Cotton
Canola
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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