The reported U.S.-Iran MoU appears to be moving closer, but it is still not finalized. Iranian media says the 14-point draft would include U.S. commitments to lift sanctions, remove the naval blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, release frozen Iranian funds, ease oil restrictions, and withdraw forces from around Iran, while pushing the nuclear issue into a 60-day negotiation window. Other reporting suggests the signing could happen next week, potentially around the G7, with the first step focused on demining and reopening Hormuz to restore freedom of trade. In return, Iran would reportedly face long-term limits on uranium enrichment and nuclear site activity, with financial relief phased in as compliance is verified. However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry continues to say no final agreement has been reached, Tehran has not formally approved the deal, and reports on timing remain speculative. For markets, a signed MoU would be bearish crude and war-risk premium, but the conflicting headlines mean event risk remains high until there is an official announcement and Hormuz actually reopens.
SpaceX’s reported IPO today is a major market event, with the company expected to raise a record amount of capital at an extremely large valuation. Investor demand appears very strong, driven by SpaceX’s position across launch services, Starlink broadband, defense-related contracts, and long-term space infrastructure. The offering could be viewed as a broader test of risk appetite, especially for high-growth technology and private-market names. While the deal highlights strong investor interest in premium growth stories, the valuation is likely to be heavily debated, and first-day trading will be watched closely for signs of whether the market is willing to support that level of pricing.
China and Macron are trying to frame the G7 trade debate very differently. Beijing is calling for “free and open” trade and warning against protectionism, while Macron is pushing China to address global trade imbalances, especially the surge of low-priced Chinese exports in EVs, batteries, and other industrial goods that are pressuring European manufacturers. Macron appears to be trying one more cooperative approach before the EU considers tougher trade action, but the backdrop is tense: Europe is increasingly worried about China’s record surplus and state-backed industrial model, while China argues its competitiveness is legitimate and that tariffs would undermine global trade rules. For markets, this keeps China-EU trade risk elevated heading into the G7, with autos, batteries, critical minerals, and broader industrial supply chains most exposed.
ECB officials are leaning hawkish, with several policymakers signaling that inflation risks are broadening and that July remains a live meeting if conditions require more action. Nagel kept all options on the table, while Makhlouf warned that doing nothing would be a mistake as inflation pressures spread. Kocher acknowledged the war is increasingly feeding into price trends, though he does not expect a repeat of the 2022–2023 inflation spike, and stressed the ECB will act to protect the 2% target. Dolenc struck a more measured tone, saying the latest rate hike is enough for the current baseline, but also noted that inflation is likely to be higher, growth lower, and services inflation remains stubborn. Overall, the message is that the ECB is not ready to declare victory and is prepared to tighten further if inflation does not cool.
Energy executives are warning the White House that the oil reserve cushion being used to limit the Iran war’s impact on prices is running dangerously low, raising concerns that the U.S. has less room to absorb another supply shock if the conflict drags on or Hormuz remains disrupted. The concern is that reserve releases and inventory drawdowns can help cap prices short term, but they are not a lasting solution if geopolitical risk stays elevated. For markets, this keeps upside risk in crude and refined products unless the Iran deal is signed and shipping flows normalize, which would remove some of the war-risk premium.
Canada’s economy is already struggling, and PM Carney’s latest comments suggest he is more focused on looking tough politically than easing trade uncertainty. His push for a bilateral deal with Mexico, along with Canada’s decision to delay opening a new bridge to the U.S., sends a confrontational signal at a time when Canadian businesses need smoother cross-border trade, not more friction. With the U.S. still Canada’s most important trading partner, this approach risks adding pressure to already weak growth, supply chains, freight flows, and investment confidence. For markets, it keeps North American trade policy unsettled and raises the risk that politics, rather than economic pragmatism, drives the next phase of USMCA negotiations.
Overnight option activity
Corn
S 500 z 500 c 8 1/2
B 250 nu -9 cso p 1
S 3500 u 450/400 ps 30 ½ to 28 7/8
B 500 z 445 p vs s z 480/510 cs 23 ½ to 24 ¼ db
S 2000 u 470 c 4 3/4
S 1000 n 405 p 5
B 100 h 590 c 4
S 500 z 550 c 4 to 3 3/4
S 1000 z 450 c 21
Soymeal
S 100 q 300 p 5.00 to 4.95
S 300 q 305 p 7.70 to 7.40
Bean oil
B 500 n 7250 p .875
B 350 n72 c vs s 66 p 2.100
S 200 q 76 c 1.345 to 1.000
Wheat
S 1250 u 620 c 18 1/4
Kc wheat
B 100 u 620 p 17 to 17 1/8
Open interest changes
Corn
Dec 480/530 call spread buy, dec 550 call sale, sept 385 put buy, july 420 call sale, march 530/630 1x2 call spread sale, july 415 put buy and dec 470 put sale are new...dec 420 put buy, sept 490 call buy and sept 430/400 put spread sales were closing.
Beans
July 1140 call buy was closing...nov 1250 call buy and nov 1250/1350 call spread buy vs sale of 1050 puts was new.
Wheat
March 1400 call sale was closing
Kc wheat
July 690 call sale and july 650 call buys were closing
Live cattle
Aug 230 put buy was new
Cvol
Ags 20.70% down .20%
Corn 26.14% up .21%
Beans 16.51% down .21%
Soymeal 20.67% down .29%
Bean oil 27.41% up .33%
Wheat 27.75% down 1.05%
Feeder cattle 15.96% down .60%
Live cattle 15.87% down .33%
Lean hogs 24.21% down .63%
Class 3 milk 19.04% up .59%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Cotton
Canola
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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