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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

Wasde and quarterly grain stocks today.

The latest crop progress report is neutral to slightly bearish for corn and soybeans, as both crops remain in generally solid condition and are developing ahead of normal. Corn was rated 67% good/excellent, down only slightly, with 9% silking versus 6% average, meaning the crop is moving into its key pollination window. Soybeans were 65% good/excellent, also down modestly, while emergence, blooming, and pod-setting are all running ahead of average. The report does not show a major production problem yet, so crop potential remains intact, but with corn pollination and soybean reproductive stages now underway, the market will become increasingly sensitive to July and August weather.

 

China’s June PMI data came in a little better than expected and points to stabilization rather than a major acceleration. Manufacturing moved back into expansion at 50.3 versus expectations of 50.1 and 50.0 previously, while non-manufacturing improved to 50.2 and the composite edged up to 50.6. Since readings above 50 signal expansion, the data is mildly supportive for commodities because China’s industrial and service activity is still growing, but only at a modest pace. The key takeaway is that China’s economy is holding together with some help from exports and policy support, but the recovery remains uneven and not strong enough yet to call it a major demand boom for energy, metals, or agriculture.

Reuters reported the yen was near 162.41 per dollar, its weakest since 1986

The White House is turning up pressure on fuel retailers as crude oil falls, with President Trump arguing that pump prices should come down immediately now that oil is near 68 per barrel and Interior Secretary Burgum saying gasoline can “absolutely” move below 3.00 per gallon. The market takeaway is that the administration wants consumers to see faster relief from lower crude prices, especially after the Iran-related energy spike, but retail gasoline usually lags crude on the way down because refining margins, inventories, taxes, transportation costs, and summer driving demand all slow the pass-through. For energy markets, this keeps political pressure on refiners and retailers, raises the risk of investigations or public scrutiny around margins, and reinforces the idea that the White House wants lower fuel prices as part of the broader inflation and consumer-confidence story.

 

The EU-China trade discussions sound more constructive, but they are not a sign that the underlying tension has gone away. Brussels and Beijing agreed to keep talking, protect supply chain stability, exchange market access lists, and work through some intellectual property issues, which lowers the near-term risk of a sharp breakdown. However, EU Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič made clear that Europe is no longer willing to accept the current imbalance, saying the “status quo is not an option” as Chinese exports into Europe keep rising while European access inside China remains constrained. The key areas to watch are trade rebalancing, export controls, intellectual property rights, and WTO reform, with the EU pushing for tangible progress before October. For markets, this is a modestly positive signal because dialogue remains open, but it also keeps tariffs, rare earth access, industrial policy, and global supply chain risk firmly in focus.

 

The developments reported in Doha do not constitute a substantive breakthrough, as they appear to represent a managed de-escalation absent agreement on fundamental issues. The United States has dispatched Kushner and Witkoff to Qatar; however, Iran has publicly denied that direct U.S. talks or nuclear negotiations are scheduled, instead characterizing the engagement as focused on ceasefire compliance rather than a comprehensive agreement. This distinction is significant, as the ceasefire and memorandum of understanding remain fragile. Statements from U.S. officials, including Rubio, indicate that nuclear negotiations may fail, while Iran asserts that it has not received anticipated funds. Concurrently, Tehran continues to employ the Strait of Hormuz as leverage by suggesting it may not guarantee safe passage for vessels operating outside Iran-approved arrangements. Market responses reflect this uncertainty: declining oil prices indicate that traders are not currently pricing in a full disruption of Hormuz, yet the persistence of risk premiums underscores ongoing concerns. These dynamics highlight a fundamental divergence, with the United States seeking compliance and measurable progress, while Iran aims to shape the terms, timing, and logistical parameters of engagement.

 

image-20260630044519-1

 

 

Overnight option activity

Corn

B 200 q 370 p 1 3/8

B 100 u 390 p7 5/8

S 150 u 450c 6 3/8 

B 300 u 420/460 cs 3 7/8 

S 300 z 430 p 23 1/2

B 500 q 420/430cs 3

B 500 u 420 c 14 1/4

S 1000 u 430c 11 to 10 7/8 

S 100 h 480 c 15 3/4

B 150 h 440/470 cs vs s 390 p 2 db

B 1200 z 550/850 cs 3 1/4

 

Wheat

B 100 q560 c 5 3/4

B 200 q 650 c 1 ¾ to 1 7/8 

 

Open interest changes

Corn

Aug 410 call buy, aug 410 put buy and aug 409 put sales were new. Short aug 450/470 call spread buy was rolling a long.

 

Beans

Nov 1140 straddle sale, nov 1070 put sale, short aug 1160 call sale and july27 1300 call buys were new.

 

Soymeal

Sept 370 call buy was closing.

 

Lean hogs

Aug 105 call buy was closing. Oct 90 call buy was new. 

 

Live cattle

Dec 250 call sale was closing.

 

Cvol

Ags 23.20% up .19%

Corn 24.94% up 1.33%

Beans 21.27% up .07%

Soymeal 25.78% up .07%

Bean oil 25.78% up .13%

Wheat 27.90% up .47%

Feeder cattle 15.73% up .01%

Live cattle 16.03% up .03%

Lean hogs 21.93% up .11%

Class 3 milk 20.22% down .26%

 

Corn

image-20260630044519-2

Beans

image-20260630044519-3

Soymeal

image-20260630044519-4

Bean oil

image-20260630044519-5

Wheat

image-20260630044519-6

Kc wheat

image-20260630044519-7

Miax wheat

image-20260630044519-8

Oats

image-20260630044519-9

Rough rice

image-20260630044519-10

Cotton

image-20260630044519-11

Canola

image-20260630044519-12

Feeder cattle

image-20260630044519-13

Live cattle

image-20260630044519-14

Lean hogs

image-20260630044519-15

  • Grains & Oilseeds

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