Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
The sharp divergence between cocoa and coffee markets in 2025 underscored a fundamental truth of soft commodities: not all demand behaves the same. Cocoa’s 50% price fall reflected how substitution and industrial reformulation can unwind years of gains almost overnight. Coffee, however, proved remarkably stable, supported by deep-rooted consumption habits and limited alternatives. The contrast offers a clear view into how structural and behavioral factors can dictate volatility in agricultural markets.
Fernando Maximiliano, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Manager, and Lucca Bezzon, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst, bring a dual perspective on how supply recovery, substitution, and weather patterns interact to drive both resilience and vulnerability across soft commodities.
As Lucca Bezzon explains, “the fall in cocoa prices is mainly linked to expectations of a surplus for the 2025–26 harvest”, amplified by substitution in confectionery production. Industrial users replaced cocoa butter with cheaper fats, reducing grinding activity and magnifying downside pressure. Coffee’s case is different. Fernando Maximiliano notes that “there is no way to substitute coffee for another product”, meaning consumption remains steady even as costs fluctuate.
Looking to 2026, both analysts highlight the importance of weather and policy. Bezzon points to West African crop recovery as a potential stabilizer for cocoa, while Maximiliano flags Brazilian tariffs and El Niño patterns as key variables for coffee. As he observes, “tariffs on Brazil were bullish, but removal could turn bearish”, showing how trade shifts can alter fundamentals overnight. Both agree that structural consumption and regional weather will decide whether divergence persists or narrows next season.
Access live prices, supply and demand data, and actionable market commentary focused on the Coffee and Cocoa sectors. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and see how our Coffee and Cocoa insights can elevate your strategy.
Sign up for a Coffee Market Intelligence trial today Sign up for a Cocoa Market Intelligence trial today See our financial videos hub
--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Experts: Fernando Maximiliano, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Manager; Lucca Bezzon, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Brazil could still deliver a record arabica crop, but the bigger question for growers is what the next season holds. Out of season flowering and the swing of El Niño have put the spotlight on the rains still to come.
Daily coffee report
August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
