• Arabica coffee futures reached a historic high this week
• Arabica coffee fell 3.3% during the week to US¢ 319.50/lb
• Robusta futures advanced 1.3% during the week to US$ 5,184/ton
• Cepea index for arabica coffee rose 1.3%, and robusta increased by 5.6%
• Estimates indicate a decline in arabica production
• Discrepancy between estimates already reaches nearly 12 million bags
• Cecafé: Brazil exported 4.66 million bags in November (+5.4%)
• USDA to release the global coffee report on Wednesday (18)
Last week, arabica coffee futures prices reached their historic high but lost strength and ended the week lower. On Tuesday (10), arabica coffee futures opened with an 800-point increase (+2.4%), reaching a high of US¢ 348.35/lb (+5.5%), but the movement lost strength, and prices closed the session at US¢ 334.15/lb (+1.2%). For the remainder of the week, prices continued to decline and ended the period lower. On the other hand, robusta coffee futures ended the week higher.
In New York, the most active contract registered a drop of 1,075 points (-3.3%), closing at US¢ 319.50/lb. On the London terminal, robusta coffee prices advanced by US$ 68/ton (1.3%), ending at US$ 5,184/ton. On Monday (16), prices continue to rise amid concerns about supply for 2025/26, with New York up 2.55% and London up 0.35% at the time of writing this report.
In the Brazilian domestic market, arabica and robusta coffee prices ended the week higher. The Cepea index for arabica coffee rose 1.3%, closing at R$ 2,141.91/bag. Meanwhile, robusta advanced by 5.6%, reaching R$ 1,805.23/bag. These increases occurred despite the 0.8% decline in the dollar, quoted at R$ 6.04.
Weekly Intraday (most active contract) – 09/12 to 13/12
From a fundamental’s perspective, coffee prices continue to respond to the reduced supply scenario for the upcoming season. Last week, Volcafe released its projection for 2025/26, pointing to a production of 34.4 million bags of arabica coffee and a total of 58.4 million bags for Brazilian production. The research firm TRS estimated Brazilian production at over 70 million bags. Ofi reduced its projection to 62.5 million bags, with 38.5 million bags of arabica coffee. In November, StoneX had estimated the 2025/26 crop at 65.6 million bags, with 40 million arabica (-10.5%) and 25.6 million robusta (+20.9%).
While all projections indicate a sharp decline in arabica coffee production, which supports higher prices, there is a significant discrepancy between estimates. Even without Conab's estimates, which are typically the lowest in the market, there is already a difference of nearly 12 million bags between the lowest and highest estimates. This issue brings uncertainty and increases coffee price volatility. StoneX continues its coffee research work and will release an update to its estimates in mid-March 2025.
Last week, Cecafé released export data for November. According to the council, Brazil exported 4.66 million bags of coffee in November, representing a 5.4% increase compared to the previous year. Of these, 714,200 bags were robusta coffee (-20.8%), 3.58 million bags were arabica coffee (+9.1%), and 369,300 bags were industrialized coffee (+52.9%). Export revenue for the month totaled nearly 7.8 billion reais, representing an increase of almost 93% compared to November 2023.
Brazilian Green Coffee Exports (millions of bags)
Source: Cecafé. Design: StoneX.
In the accumulated total for 2024, Brazil has already exported 46.4 million bags, with robusta exports totaling 8.7 million bags (+107.4%), arabica coffee 33.9 million bags (+23.2%), and industrialized coffee 3.73 million bags (+11.9%). Revenue for the period surpassed 60.2 billion reais, marking an increase of over 66% compared to the same period in 2023.
In the coming days, the market will closely follow the release of the USDA global coffee report on December 18, which will update the global supply and demand balance for 2024/25. The expectation is that the USDA will reduce its projection for the season's surplus, which currently stands at 5.6 million bags. It is important to note that the USDA’s projection for 2025/26 will be released only in June 2025.
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What we are reading:
Consumers Feel Impact of Soaring Coffee Prices
What About Switzerland? EUDR Impact on One of the Biggest Non-EU Players in the Coffee Game
Updated Brazil Coffee Crop Forecasts
Guatemala’s Coffee Exports Hits 110,342 In New Coffee Year As of November 21
Volcafe: Brazil’s 25/26 Drought Effected Arabica Crop Revised Sharply Lower
CeCafe: Brazil’s November Green Coffee 2.7% Higher Year on Year
USDA Likely to Revise Lower Forecast for 2024-2025 Coffee Supply Surplus
TABLE OF INDICATORS
