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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

June 23 – The tech sector came under heavy pressure again overnight, as investors worry about AI once again in the ebb and flow of market sentiment on the topic. The selloff was strong enough to push the VIX back above 20 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 101.3 – a new 13-month high. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.49%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.19%. WTI crude oil prices put in a new low for the move overnight, trading as low as $72.48 per barrel, although they’ve recovered roughly a dollar since, while Brent trades near $77 per barrel as oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz increases. Wheat prices were again under pressure overnight, while corn and soybean prices posted modest gains.

Iran and the United States reportedly agreed to a roadmap to reach a peace agreement during the 60-day ceasefire. I’m not sure how many roadmaps the two have had over the past several months, but that’s where we’re at once again. But the bottom line to the markets is that the flow of oil through the Strait is increasing. The latest data suggests that tankers are moving an average of roughly 7 million barrels per day through the Strait currently. The majority of that is Iranian oil, but other countries are now starting to gain sufficient confidence to move ships through as well. That continues to keep pressure on crude oil prices, with the headlines driving action currently. That by no means indicates that all is well with the global energy balance sheet, but the markets are trading a big sigh of relief currently that oil is actually flowing versus being nearly completely shut down for several months.

Vice President J.D. Vance gave an upbeat report from the negotiations on Monday, but he caught the attention of commodity traders with a statement that he made. Vance stated that frozen Iranian assets would be made available to Iran via imports of U.S. Ag commodities. It was unclear whether that was a negotiating point, or something stated as a suggestion. However, President Trump backed that up with a Truth Social post this morning. Speaking of the frozen funds, Trump stated that, “The money and or sanctions that the U.S. Treasury is releasing goes into escrow, controlled by the U.S.A., and will be used for the purchase of food and medical supplies, exclusively from the United States, including corn, wheat, and soybeans from our great American Farmers. Iran’s foreign minister later rejected the notion of using these funds to buy U.S. Ag commodities. That doesn’t surprise me, as Iran hasn’t bought any U.S. commodities of note since 2018, and it despises the notion of being forced to do business with the hated “Satan.” Nonetheless, this is what goes into negotiations.

I remain skeptical of Iranian purchases of U.S. Ag commodities, but the possibility must be respected. That may end up being an area that Iran gives on in order to get what it wants in another area of the talks. Iran imported 18 million metric tons of corn, soybeans and wheat in calendar year 2025, including 12.4 mmt of corn, 2.5 mmt of soybeans, and 3.2 mmt of wheat. Using the frozen funds to purchase similar quantities this year would have a significant impact on the balance sheets of each of those commodities, particularly if China would do something similar under its agreement to purchase 25 mmt of soybeans and $17 billion in other Ag commodities per year. Again, I remain skeptical, but we must respect the possibility that this could actually happen – or at least a significant enough portion of the above numbers to notably tighten the U.S. balance sheets of these commodities.

China’s economy continues to struggle, but it does have its bright spots. I quote from today’s China Direct wire posted on the StoneX portal, which goes into far more detail than I have room here.  “From a macro perspective, China’s economy is still best understood through the traditional “three drivers” framework: investment, consumption, and net exports. Under the expenditure approach, GDP = investment + consumption + net exports. If I were to score these three drivers, I would give China an A+ on net exports, a B+ on investment, and a B- on consumption.” Exports are obviously the strongest leg of the economy, and that’s been the case for some time, with China building out its economy on large trade surpluses over the years, utilizing its cheap labor to beat out other competitors. Investment continues to lag, and in fact, contract. Some of that is due to a lack of foreign investment, and some of that is due to ongoing poor consumer confidence. Consumer buying surges around holidays, but it remains relatively poor otherwise amid China’s ongoing problems with its property market, which is where the average citizen keeps his/her assets. Stimulus efforts help, until they run out of money, and then consumer buying slumps again.

Strong corn exports, and a strong domestic crush program for soybeans driven by biofuels are the two pillars trying to support those markets at a time when even a crop failure in the drought-stricken Plains is not enough to hold up wheat in a world where Black Sea prices undercut U.S. values. All three continue to watch for possible significant Chinese buying, but we’ve only seen China dip its toes in the waters thus far.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 23

June 23 – The tech sector came under heavy pressure again overnight, as investors worry about AI once again in the ebb and flow of market sentiment on the topic. The selloff was strong enough to push the VIX back above 20 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 101.3 – a new 13-month high. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.49%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.19%. WTI crude oil prices put in a new low for the move overnight, trading as low as $72.48 per barrel, although they’ve recovered roughly a dollar since, while Brent trades near $77 per barrel as oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz increases. Wheat prices were again under pressure overnight, while corn and soybean prices posted modest gains.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 22

June 22 – Stock futures were generally steady to firmer to start the week, with investors viewing U.S. / Iran negotiations with cautious optimism. The VIX is trading near 17 this morning, while the dollar index remains strong near 101.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.50%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded at fresh 16-month highs near 4.23%, as the curve continues to flatten. WTI crude oil is trading near $75 per barrel this morning, while Brent trades near $78 per barrel. Wheat prices were modestly weaker this morning, while soybeans followed soybean oil higher. However, the stronger dollar provided headwinds for much of the complex this morning.

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