Large speculator positioning across commodity futures offers a useful window into market sentiment. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows relatively muted shifts across metals, while positioning in energy markets has reacted more noticeably to the latest geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Gold and silver traders appear hesitant to chase prices higher, with positioning largely unchanged despite strong rallies in precious metals. In contrast, Brent crude oil futures have seen a sharper adjustment in positioning, with longs rising and shorts being trimmed as traders respond to heightened supply risks.
This week’s COT report therefore reveals a market where precious metals positioning remains cautious, while energy traders are reacting more decisively to geopolitical risks.
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Commodity Futures Positioning: Metals & Oil from the COT Report
Large Speculator Positioning from the COT report
Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG
- US Dollar: Asset managers flipped to net-long exposure for the first week in six, while overall US dollar exposure via futures fell $6.5 billion to -$13.5 billion.
- Gold: Managed funds increased their net-long exposure to a five-week high of 98k contracts.
- Silver: There may be early signs that the decline in net-long exposure is slowing, if it has not already troughed.
- Copper: Net-long exposure among managed funds drifted lower to a 22-week low, although prices remained broadly supported.
- Platinum: Large speculators increased net-long exposure to a five-week high of 13.8k contracts.
- Palladium: Net-long exposure fell to just 161 contracts among large speculators, while managed funds’ bullish exposure fell to 637 contracts.
- Brent Crude Oil: Net-short exposure among large speculators fell by around 50%, while managed funds increased net-long exposure to a five-week high.
Managed Funds Positioning | COT Report
Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG
COT Insights Across Gold, Silver, Copper and WTI Crude
US Dollar Exposure - COT Report
Futures traders have collectively reduced their net-short exposure to the US dollar by $9.7 billion over the past two weeks. This has seen short exposure fall to a six-week low of -$13.1 billion last week, after reaching a five-year high just two weeks prior. I had warned an inflection point could be near, although I did not foresee war being the trigger.
Asset managers also flipped to net-long exposure on the US dollar index last week, albeit by a modest 989 contracts. Large speculators, however, increased their net-short exposure to a six-week high of -4.9k contracts, likely much to their annoyance.
Still, with President Trump hinting that the war may be nearing an end, the US dollar index has retraced from Monday’s 13-month high. Yet the lack of convincing bearish follow-through suggests traders remain wary of these claims, given the absence of concrete details or any sign of regime change.
The 100 level is clearly an important near-term line in the sand for the US dollar.
Source: CFTC (COT), IMM, ICE, LSEG
Gold Futures Positioning | COT Report
Large futures traders still appear wary of jumping back into gold. Net-long exposure has remained around 160k contracts for a fourth week, with longs and shorts effectively cancelling each other out. While there has been an increase in net-long exposure among asset managers, it has been mild at best. Their net-long exposure of 97.9k contracts has nudged its way to a five-week high.
The main takeaway is that positioning among these traders is not helping to decipher the underlying move. Aside from the fact they remain net-long, there has been little change over the past four weeks. It almost feels as though traders are waiting for a pullback that refuses to materialise, as they do not want to be seen chasing prices higher.
5,000 remains the key line in the sand for gold bulls and bears for now. While a bearish engulfing week formed, prices remain above it and appear in no immediate rush to break that milestone level.
Source: CFTC (COT), COMEX, LSEG
Silver Futures Positioning | COT Report
It is a similar scenario with silver, with net-long exposure generally trending lower. That said, volumes were higher last week among large speculators, who increased both longs and shorts slightly. It is hardly a strong buy signal in itself, but it at least marks a subtle shift in sentiment from a group of traders who have generally shied away from the silver market.
While managed fund exposure was little changed, net-long positioning may have formed a trough four weeks ago.
Price action on the weekly charts shows silver prices cooling, which likely points to choppy trade in the near term without yet revealing its potential breakout direction.
Source: CFTC (COT), COMEX, LSEG
Brent Crude Oil Futures Positioning | COT Report
The clearest read on Middle East developments is arguably through positioning in Brent futures. Given that the strikes on Iran were still relatively fresh when this COT data was compiled, it makes sense that gross longs rose to a seven-year high while shorts were trimmed to a four-week low. This effectively saw net-short exposure to Brent futures halve.
Given that Brent typically spends most of its time in net-short exposure among this set of traders, that marks a fairly significant reduction in bearish positioning.
Managed funds, however, increased their net-long exposure to a five-week high, although both longs and shorts rose as hedging activity also played a role.
Source: CFTC (COT), ICE, LSEG
