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By: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region
Copper’s surge above $13,000 per tonne has coincided with a growing fixation on U.S. trade policy rather than end-user demand. The possibility of tariffs on refined copper imports has altered arbitrage dynamics and redirected global flows. This has created a market where pricing reflects political risk more than consumption trends. Such conditions leave copper vulnerable to sharp repricing if policy expectations shift.
Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Analyst at StoneX, examines how tariff speculation and inventory concentration are redefining copper price formation.
The prospect of U.S. tariffs has introduced a structural premium into copper prices that did not exist in previous cycles. Scott-Gray explains that last year tariffs were “single handedly responsible for total trade rerouting” as material flooded into the U.S. market. With around two thirds of global stocks now sitting on Comex, availability outside the U.S. has tightened significantly. This imbalance has amplified price sensitivity to any shift in tariff expectations.
Despite clear signs of demand destruction in China, prices continue to trade near record highs. Scott-Gray notes that China accounts for 58% of global demand, yet the market is “ignoring that side of the factor” as investors focus on policy risk. The CME–LME spread suggests only a small probability of tariffs, but even that uncertainty is enough to move prices. In this environment, copper is behaving less like an industrial input and more like a geopolitical asset.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst
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