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Market Analyst
Copper's long-term chart pattern is a contracting formation that has framed price action since 2017, with a multi-year resistance line connecting the 2017 and 2022 peaks capping each major rally. That structure matters because copper is pulling back from that same resistance just as gold and silver retreat, bringing the lower boundaries of the range back into view. Alongside the formation runs an uptrend of higher lows in place since 2020, and the lower edges of both meet the golden ratio Fibonacci retracement in the same area. For anyone following copper's broader trend, the real question is how that convergence behaves, holding as a floor or marking the point where the long-term picture begins to shift.
Razan Hilal, CMT, is a StoneX Media Market Analyst for Global Macro, based in Dubai, with seven years of market analysis experience covering forex, stocks, commodities and equity indices. As a Chartered Market Technician, she analyzes trend structure, momentum and intermarket relationships, the toolkit that frames copper's long-term formation alongside moves in gold and silver.
"Price action pulls back from a multi-year resistance that connected the consecutive peaks of the waves in 2017, 2022" [00:15], Hilal says, pinpointing the ceiling of copper's contracting formation since 2017. Copper's monthly chart is also showing a bearish RSI divergence between 2021 and 2026, a sign that momentum has been fading even as price pushed toward that multi-year resistance line. A ceiling that has held across two major peaks carries more weight than any single resistance level, which is why the pullback from it matters for copper's long-term structure. In other words, the upper edge of copper's range is exactly where its long-term rallies have stalled before. So does the floor of the formation hold as firmly as its ceiling?
Copper's uptrend since 2020, a line of consecutive higher lows, converges with the lower bound of the contracting formation near the golden ratio 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from April 2025 to the September 2026 high. Closer in, the copper daily chart is showing a potential diamond reversal pattern after an extended broadening and contracting consolidation. According to Hilal, "we can see a bearish breakdown with respect to the daily RSI indicator, and that's below the 50 neutral mark, which is keeping the bearish bias on the lookout" [02:42], although she notes that a clear break of support is still needed to confirm further drawdowns. Specifically, the short-term momentum signals and copper's long-term structure are pulling in different directions while the daily pattern remains unconfirmed. A sustained break below the convergence zone would shift copper toward a longer-term bearish outlook, whereas a hold there would leave the uptrend since 2020 in place.
Hilal tracks the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of copper's advance from April 2025 to its September 2026 high as the zones exposed if current support breaks. The 61.8% golden ratio carries the most weight because it lines up with the lower bound of copper's contracting formation since 2017 and its uptrend since 2020.
Hilal connects a long-term bullish scenario for copper to potential AI demand, conditional on a sustained breakout above the September 2026 high. Such a breakout could turn the multi-year resistance line connecting the 2017 and 2022 peaks into support.
According to Hilal, a sustainable breakdown below the golden ratio zone would shift the copper outlook toward a longer-term bearish view. That zone matters because the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the lower bound of the contracting formation since 2017 and the uptrend since 2020 all meet there.
--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX Media
--- Expert: Razan Hilal, StoneX Media Market Analyst
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Copper's contracting formation since 2017 is tightening as prices pull back from multi-year resistance alongside gold and silver. The lower edge of that range now meets the golden ratio Fibonacci zone and an uptrend in place since 2020, making it the area that defines copper's long-term structure.
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