By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
The S&P 500 has shed around 1.8% this week, pulled lower by a broad selloff in technology stocks and mounting conviction that the Federal Reserve is not finished raising rates, with markets now pricing in up to three hikes this year. The index has already made a lower high at the 7,575 resistance level, signaling that sellers have been active on each recovery attempt. Attention has now shifted to the 7,350 zone, the confluence of the 50-day simple moving average and the May swing low, a support level that carries outsized technical significance for the near-term trend. Core PCE inflation data, due imminently, is the single release most likely to decide if that support holds or gives way.
Fiona Cincotta, StoneX Senior Market Analyst, covers global equity indices with a focus on technical price structure and the macro catalysts that drive index direction. Her work spans the intersection of Federal Reserve policy expectations and S&P 500 price levels, making her a close observer of the conditions currently shaping this market.
Questions over the durability of the artificial intelligence trade have been at the center of this week's equity market weakness, with technology stocks leading the decline and dragging the broader S&P 500 index lower. That selling pressure has arrived at a moment when the Federal Reserve is increasingly expected to hold rates higher for longer, with some market participants now pricing as many as three hikes before year end. The combination has shifted the index's technical structure toward the bearish side of the ledger, with a lower high already in place at 7575. "The S&P 500 is at an interesting junction, whereby the index recently made a lower high running into resistance at 7,575 before rebounding lower where it's currently testing support at 7,350." Cincotta frames that 7,350 level not as an arbitrary number but as a meaningful convergence of the 50-day simple moving average and the May swing low, giving it added weight as a potential turning point.
With the S&P 500 parked at 7,350 support, the core PCE inflation data release becomes the most consequential near-term input for equity direction. On the downside, sellers need to push below 7,350 and then clear the June low at 7,225 to lock in a lower low, a move Cincotta says would bring 7,200 into immediate focus and open the path toward 7,000, the area of the January and February highs. "Sellers will need to break below this support and the 7,225 level the June low to create a lower low and a more bearish picture, bringing 7,200 into focus ahead of 7,000 the January and February highs." On the other side of the trade, a softer inflation reading that reinforces the 50-day moving average and 7,350 as support would shift attention back to the upside, where buyers face their own test. As Cincotta notes, "should we see that the 50 SMA and that horizontal support 7,350 hold, then buyers will need to rise above that 7,575 level to create a higher high and bring the record level of 7,620 back into focus." The data therefore does not merely inform the next session; it determines which structural scenario the S&P 500 is playing out.
From detailed guides on how to trade major assets to quarterly market outlooks and special reports, we offer FREE access to the articles you need to successfully implement "global macro" style trading!
Sign Up
--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX Media
--- Expert: Fiona Cincotta, StoneX Senior Market Analyst
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
The S&P 500 is at a critical technical juncture after a 1.8% weekly decline driven by tech sector selling and rising Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Core PCE inflation data is the immediate swing factor, with the potential to either confirm a bearish breakdown or reignite the case for new record highs.
Rising interest rates are exposing a structural vulnerability at the heart of the AI equity trade, where much of the investment case rests on earnings expected years into the future. As the Federal Reserve reinforces its hawkish stance and capital requirements across the AI buildout mount, investors are applying a far more demanding standard to technology valuations.
Japan's record-breaking Nikkei rally is being driven by far more than a weak yen, with semiconductor names riding a global wave of AI investment. This piece looks at why Japanese chip makers have become front-line beneficiaries of the AI boom and where the risks now sit.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
