Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Mon, 06 Sep 2021, 14:29

Corn drops amid more favorable US weather and approaching harvest

João Pedro Lopes

Market monitors US export sales and hurricane damage at Gulf terminals

Corn futures had a busy start in Chicago and ended the first session of last week significantly lower, pressured by rain in the western region of the corn belt, by the approaching harvest in the US (which will increase availability), and by Hurricane Ida (which damaged the terminals in the US Gulf, raising concerns about a possible delay in corn shipments and an exchange of the nation’s grain for that of other locations). December/21 ended the day with a drop of 11 cents/bushel.

On the day, the USDA released its export inspection report, indicating a decline in the pace of US shipments. In the week ended August 26, the US shipped 562,600 tonnes, about 180,000 less than the week before. On a year-to-date basis, total exports have reached 65.8 million, up by 23.9 million tonnes from 2019/20.

Also on Monday (30), the USDA updated its US crop progress report. On August 29, 60% of the US crop was in good/excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week and 1 point above market expectations.

Intraday (15 min) - December/21 (CBOT)

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Corn Prices - CBOT (cents/bushel)

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

On Tuesday (31), the corn market had another session of material losses, with December/21 losing 6.5 cents/bushel in the intraday. Once again, the futures reflected uncertainties about hurricane Ida’s damage and the wet weather in the US.

On Wednesday (1), the market posted a high volume of trading as agents liquidated long positions due to export problems and lower vulnerability to damage for the corn crop, resulting in another significant decline in Chicago. December/21 declined by 11.5 cents/bushel.

StoneX released its updated figures for the corn crop in Brazil on the day. The 2020/21 safrinha corn number was again downgraded, to 59.1 million tonnes. The reduction reflected the expectation of lower production in Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul. In relation to the 2020/21 third corn crop, StoneX maintained its number at 1.74 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous report. In addition to this supply-side decline, it is worth highlighting the reduction in exports by another 1 million tonnes, to 18 million.

For the 2021/22 summer corn crop, StoneX did not bring changes in relation to the first number, released in August, with production at 29,8 million tonnes. Should this higher volume of production be confirmed, the situation in the first half of 2022 could be less restricted than in previous years.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US ethanol production fell to 905 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the week ended August 13, a weekly drop of 28 mbpd. Stocks also dropped, by 113,000 barrels, to 21.11 million.

On Thursday, after the consecutive tumbles, corn futures posted a slight technical recovery losses in Chicago, with December/21 rising by 2.75 cents/bushel.

On the day, it was StoneX’s turn to update US production numbers. For corn, the expected production for 2021/22 was 380.96 million tonnes, higher than in August and higher than the USDA figure of 374.7 million tonnes. The country’s average productivity was estimated at 11.14 tonnes per hectare for corn.

The USDA released the US export sales report. Net cancellations of 300,800 tonnes were registered for the 2020/21 crop in the week ended August 26, below market expectations, which ranged from -100,000 to 100,000 tonnes. As such, commitments to all destinations rose to 70 million tonnes, against 44,6 million in the same period last year and against the USDA’s estimate for the 2020/21 crop of 70.5 million. In relation to the 2021/22 crop, net sales totaled 1.2 million tonnes tonnes, in line with market expectations that ranged from 850,000 to 1.6 million tonnes.

Weekly US export sales - 2021/22

Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.

On Friday, corn quotes fluctuated between positive and negative fields and closed the day before the long weekend with slight gains. The market awaits new USDA figures for the 2021/22 US crop, noting that private estimates have brought results above the production estimated by the Department.

SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag)

Source: StoneX, Aroglink and IMEA. Design: StoneX.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

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UNITED STATES

EU AND CHINA

Grains & Oilseeds

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